4.3.2 Control
The antennas necessary for UA to communicate with their handlers have evolved from dishes or blades to being conformal, and are even today being made of film or sprayed on. Imagine an entire aircraft fuselage and/or wing that functions as an antenna, providing higher gain while eliminating the weight and power draw of present antenna drives. In-flight entertainment systems for airliners are pushing this technology.
Future UA will evolve from being robots operated at a distance to independent robots, able to self-actualize to perform a given task. This autonomy, has many levels emerging by which it is defined, but ultimate autonomy will require capabilities analogous to those of the human brain by future UA mission management computers. To achieve that level, machine processing will have to match that of the human brain in speed, memory, and quality of algorithms, or thinking patterns. Moore's Law predicts the speed of microprocessors will reach parity with the human brain around 2015. Others estimate the memory capacity of a PC will equal that of the human memory closer to 2030. As to when or how many lines of software code equate to "thinking" is still an open question, but it is noteworthy that pattern recognition by software today is generally inferior to that of a human.
Standards based interoperability is another critical area of evolution within the control environment. DoD is adopting this approach to achieving interoperability (through efforts such as NATO Standardization Agreement (STANAG) 4586) that will foster an environment supporting C4ISR support to the warfighter from UAS regardless of manufacturer, UA, or GCS.
As for those UA remaining under human control, the controller will eventually be linked to his remote charge through his own neuromuscular system. Today's ground station vans are already being superseded by wearable harnesses with joysticks and face visors allowing the wearer to "see" through the UA sensor, regardless of where he faces. Vests will soon provide him the tactile sensations "felt" by the UA when it turns or dives or encounters turbulence. Eventually, UA pilots will be wired so that the electrical signals they send to their muscles will translate into instantaneous control inputs to the UA. To paraphrase a popular saying, the future UA pilot will transition from seeing the plane to being the plane.
Recommended Investment Strategy: Focus DoD research and development on improved standards, improved man/machine interfaces for UAS, conformal low observable antennae, and advanced UA management systems.
4.3.3 Propulsion
Unmanned aircraft already exploit more forms of propulsion than do manned aircraft, from traditional gas turbines and reciprocating engines to batteries and solar power, and are exploring scramjets (X-43), fuel cells (Helios and Hornet), reciprocating chemical muscles, beamed power, and even nuclear isotopes. Technological advances in propulsion that were previously driven by military-sponsored research are now largely driven by commercial interests—fuel cells by the automotive industry, batteries by the computer and cellular industries, and solar cells by the commercial satellite industry. UAS are therefore more likely to rely on COTS or COTS-derivative powerplants than their manned predecessors were; Global Hawk and Dark Star both selected business jet engines in their design. Because endurance (“persistence”) is
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