无人机系统路线图 Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap(182)

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MQ-1 and MQ-9/Predator
RQ-1A. The Predator experienced low mission completion rates during its initial deployment in the Balkans in 1995-1997.  While the primary causal factor was weather, system failures did account for 12% of the incomplete missions.  Mission-level operational data from the system deployed in Hungary was used to perform a limited assessment of system reliability based on data covering missions from March 1996 through April 1997.
Out of the 315 Predator missions tasked during that timeframe, weather and system cancellations kept nearly two-thirds on the ground (60 percent).  Of the remaining missions that were launched, slightly under one half were subsequently aborted.  These aborts were due to system (29 percent), weather (65 percent), and operational issues (6 percent) that included airspace conflicts, operator errors, and crew duty limitations.
Data indicates that 38 missions (12 percent) were scrubbed due to system failures, an additional 18 system aborts (6 percent) that did not result in mission cancellation (due to launch of another aircraft or weather hold), and other issues which kept the Predator on the ground 6 times (2 percent).  Out of this
APPENDIX H – RELIABILITY
Page H-5
UAS ROADMAP 2005

total of 62 sorties affected by mission aborts or cancellations due to maintenance, operations, or human errors, the systems’ failure breakout data is provided in Table H-2.
MQ-1B. The Predator transition into production led to some problems which affected aircraft reliability.  As the first ACTD program to transition to production, the Predator established the precedent, as well as the lessons learned, for the transition process.  First, nearly continuous deployment commitments since March 1996 have delayed operational testing.  Second, development of the ORD, usually produced early in a program to guide system design, was not begun until after the ACTD ended (indicated by the N/A in Table H-1) Third, additional challenges to system reliability were introduced, such as the addition of a wing deicing system (glycol-weeping wings) as well as a redesigned control station for greater portability.
Since this rocky start, the Predator fleet has logged over 100,000 hours (as of October 2004) and has “come of age” during Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM.  As a result of its unorthodox transition process, however, Predator reliability issues were discovered and addressed during operations around the world.  Although the system still experiences reliability issues and aircraft losses, its performance during these operations has been remarkably good when compared to those outlined in the ORD.
The data in Table H-1 and H-2 represents all mission aborts (on the ground and in-flight) for all MQ-1B systems between January 1997 and June 2002.  The share of power/propulsion failure modes has doubled in the MQ-1B compared to the MQ-1A.  The Predator program office acknowledged that the engine is the primary reliability issue.
　
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