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freighter fleet foreseen
Economic Status of Airlines
Before 9/11
(J. Wangermann, Booz-Allen-Hamilton, 1/02)
0.09
0.10
0 .11
0.12
Cents Per Available Seat Mile
(Adjusted To 2001 Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Unit Revenue And Cost Trend
(U.S. Industry)
RASM
CASM
Actual
Q2
Outlook
without Sept. 11
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Even before September 11, the airline industry was heading toward
a significant recession
Note: Unit Revenue = RASM = Revenue per available seat mile, Unit Cost = CASM = Cost per available real mile
Source: DOT
n 1998-2001 Cost Increases: Fuel and labor
n 2000-2001 Price Declines: 10-yr-high prices in 2000, dot.com bust,
recession, stock market, tightening corporate budgets
Traffic, Capacity, Load Factor:
Network Airlines vs. Southwest Airlines
(AW&ST, 3/18/02)
Earnings and Market Value of
Commercial Airlines
n UAL earnings/share estimates: $10.50 (‘98),
$10.06 (‘99), $2.38 (‘00), -$36.33 (‘01), -$22.28
(‘02), -$7.50 (‘03)
n AMR estimates: $7.52 (‘98), $6.26 (‘99), $4.65
(‘00), -$3.71 (‘01), -$4.09 (‘02), $2.70 (‘03)
n LUV estimates: $0.52 (‘98), $0.59 (‘99), $0.79
(‘00), $0.64 (‘01), $0.64 (‘02), $0.98(‘03)
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15 Current debt of the
top 7 network airlines is ~$70B-75B
Effect of Major Events on Traffic
and Passenger Enplanements
(AW&ST, 11/19/01, 3/18/02)
n Historically, traffic
rebounds after negative
events
n 2-year hiatus in revenuepassenger-
mile (RPM)
growth foreseen
n Effect of more successful
attacks? widened war
against terrorists?
airline bankruptcies?
law suits related to 9/11?
n Substitution of
teleconferencing, e-mail,
etc. for long-distance
travel
Possible Airline Industry Directions
(J. Wangermann, Booz-Allen-Hamilton, 1/02)
n Re-think customer segmentation (behavior, trip purpose, actual or
potential profitability, not just miles flown)
n Re-focus/redefine services at each stage of travel on customer
segments (reservations, pre-travel, airport, onboard, etc.)
n Focus delivery mechanisms to counter niche players:
– Less cross-subsidy across segments
– High density, no-frills services on larger aircraft
– 4-class service (First Class, Business, Premium Economy, Economy)
– Trunk -> Regional shift
n Create global brand through partnerships
Degree of
“Unbundling”
Required
Low
High
Near-Term Outlook Grim for Airframe
and Parts Manufacturers (AW&ST, 1/28/02)
n 5 years to full economic recovery
n Parked aircraft return to service
before ordering new aircraft
n “Not a going-out-of-business scenario”
n Most suppliers have a diversified
customer base
n Lag between airline turn-around and
new aircraft orders
n Bankruptcy of a single large airline
would have major effect
n Divestiture, mergers, and acquisitions;
Enron effect
How are Airframe and Parts
Manufacturers Responding?
n Boeing cuts delivery estimates by
150 aircraft in next 15 months;
layoffs of up to 30,000 people,
proceeds with Sonic Cruiser;
backlog of 980 aircraft (through
2002); diversification strategy:
smaller percentage of earnings
from commercial aircraft
n Airbus does not cut back,
proceeds with A380, forecasts
15% earnings growth; backlog of
1,714 aircraft (through 2004)
n With engine manufacturers and
suppliers, 100,000 layoffs likely
n USAF may lease 100 transports
(B-767, A330?) as tankers
Boeing Prediction of Total
Commercial Fleet (pre-9/11); ATA,
CSFB Delivery Estimates
(AW&ST, 3/18/02)
The Boeing Airliner Strategy
n Focus on point-to-point
comfort and convenience
n Address need for more,
smaller aircraft
n Reduce travel time for
high-end market
The Airbus Airliner Strategy
n Capture market for very-large
passenger aircraft
n Address need for very-large freighter
aircraft
n Maintain spectrum of aircraft
General Aviation: Part of the
Solution or Part of the Problem?
n General Aviation: business and
private aircraft, professional
and amateur pilots
n Fixed-Base Operators (FBO),
flying schools, traffic reporters,
banner tows, crop dusters
n Disturbed individuals crash on
White House lawn (1994) and
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