曝光台 注意防骗
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alternative are examined, and the most
beneficial alternative is adopted. This is
something akin to how we purchase a
household appliance if we do it well. We
should consider out needs (How large of a
family do I have? How many loads of
laundry do I need to wash each week?),
examine the benefits (How large is the
capacity, How many wash cycles does it
have?), look at the costs (How much more
do I get for an extra $200), and the probability
it will function reliably as designed
(A measure comparable to probability of
success - is this really a good manufacturer?).
If we do all of this, we should
make the best decision.
Now, we all recognize situations where
we, and business, do not make decisions
in this manner. But, expectancy-value
theory is intended as a prescription for
how to make decisions well. Does it work
when it comes to flying an aircraft? Only
in certain circumstances - where time is
available to generate and evaluate options
and where the immediate control and
habitability of the aircraft or situation is
not in question. This approach could pay
off if we’re deciding to depart an airport
while waiting to depart the gate, or if we
are about to begin decent from cruise and
find out weather conditions are becoming
marginal. In these cases, it might be worth
while to consider our options and not be
pressed by our desire to complete our
original plan.
But if there’s smoke in the cabin, an engine
or cabin fire, or loss of pressurization,
we need to decide and act quickly.
We’ll be better off if we have planned and
practiced those situations before and simply
apply the judgment we may have
made in advanced.
Is there a middle ground? Should pilots
alter their decision making strategy? It is
unlikely you will fundamentally change
how you make decisions. It is probably
also unwise, because recognition-primed
decision-making works where time constraints
apply. However, there are some
things you might do deliberately to improve
your odds.
Decision models
Transport Canada issued a Judgment
Training Manual n which they suggest
“pilot judgment is the process of recognizing
and analyzing all available information
about one’s self., the aircraft and
flying environment, followed by the rational
evaluation of alternatives to implement
a timely decision which maximizes
safety.” If a pilot learns how to perceive,
observe, detect, and understand a situation,
he or she will be more prepared to
choose the best alternative while under
stress or time constraint; this concept is
very consistent with expert decision making.
From this perspective, we train for
good decisions by knowing what to look
for when selecting alternatives - we build
our expertise.
Transport Canada offered a model for
decision making using the work DECIDE
as a memory aid. It is intended as a tool to
assist pilots in making critical decisions,
or perhaps, to frame how we think about
making decisions. It is intended to make
the pilots contemplate the outcome of an
action to ensure the safety of an aircraft
and its passengers.
Detect Change - in may accidents, the
threat was not detected by the pilots until
it was too late to resolve it. We need an
active search for safety threats on every
flight.
Estimate the significance of the change -
accidents can result when pilots underestimate
a safety threat. Dig for more information
about the symptoms and indications
you observe.
Choose the outcome objective - what am
I trying to achieve? To complete the plan
despite new constraints? To minimize
risks? The flight department states its priorities
in FM1 as safety, passenger comfort
and convenience, and on-time performance,
in that order.
Identify plausible alternatives - this will
vary greatly by the time constrains faced
and the degree of information available.
When time is critical, there is little to do
but command and act. In the face of limited
information, discussion of actions
may be warranted.
Southwest Airlines
Flight 1455, a Boeing
737-300, skidded
off the runway after
making a visual approach
into Burbank
that was too high
and too fast...
FSI - HUMAN FACTORS 8
Do the best action - make a decision and
carry it out
Evaluate the progress - are you getting
closer to your objective, or is the situation
continuing to deteriorate? Remember to
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