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30%
Annual
Growth
Long-Term
Average Growth
Actual
Traffic
Long-Term
Trend
Forecast
Traffic
Flights in Europe (Million)
IFR traffic in Europe
1960-2009 historical figures
2010-2016 forecast
source : EUROCONTROL/STATFOR
Figure 15: Medium term traffic forecast
2.5 Traffic predictability and ANS flexibility
TRAFFIC FORECAST ACCURACY
2.5.1 Figure 16 shows the successive medium term forecasts and actual traffic at European
level. While forecasts are quite good in stable situations, they are necessarily relatively
far off in case of unforeseen changes, such as the 2001 events and the economic crisis in
2008. In February 2006, the forecast for 2009 was almost 10% above the actual traffic.
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 IFR Movements in European Statistic Reference Area (
Millions)
Source :EUROCONTROL/ STATFOR
Forecast published in :
Feb 2006
(Baseline)
Feb 2004
(Baseline)
Feb 2010
(Baseline)
Feb 2010
(Low)
Feb 2010
(High)
Feb 2009
(Baseline)
Actual Traffic
Figure 16: Medium-term forecasts with publication dates
2.5.2 A degree of unpredictability of traffic demand in time and space is inevitable. This is not
a failure of forecasting, rather a background against which ANS planning must operate,
and respond through flexibility.
2
PRR 2009 Chapter 2: Traffic
11
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAFFIC GROWTH
2.5.3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is understood to be a main driver of aviation growth.
Figure 17 illustrates a correlation between passenger kilometres flown and real GDP
growth rates
2.5.4 In 2009, the GDP variation in Europe was -4%. The yellow bars correspond to crisis
periods.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
% change over year (RPKs)
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
% change over year (GDP)
Global RPKs
(left scale)
World GDP
(right scale)
source : IATA
1980-82 1991-93 2001-03 2008-10
Growth in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Revenue Passenger Kilometres ( RPK)
Figure 17: World real GDP and RPK
2.5.5 Compared to GDP, fuel price would appear to have had a moderate impact on traffic
demand: there was strong traffic growth in 2007, when fuel prices had more than doubled.
Conversely, there was a strong traffic downturn in 2009, in spite of relatively low average
fuel prices compared to recent years. The average jet fuel price per barrel (Rotterdam spot
price) was $90 (€65) in 2007, $127 (€85) in 2008 and $71 (€51) in 2009.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 Jan 1987
1 Jan 1988
1 Jan 1989
1 Jan 1990
1 Jan 1991
1 Jan 1992
1 Jan 1993
1 Jan 1994
1 Jan 1995
1 Jan 1996
1 Jan 1997
1 Jan 1998
1 Jan 1999
1 Jan 2000
1 Jan 2001
1 Jan 2002
1 Jan 2003
1 Jan 2004
1 Jan 2005
1 Jan 2006
1 Jan 2007
1 Jan 2008
1 Jan 2009
2009 US dollar per barrel
Price in € 2009 per barrel
data source : US Department of Energy (Rotterdam Jet Fuel Spot Price)
Figure 18: Average fuel cost (deflated)
2
PRR 2009 Chapter 2: Traffic
12
2.6 Traffic Composition
2.6.1 Figure 19 shows the user mix in controlled General Air Traffic (GAT) in 2008 and 2009
using the STATFOR classification. Cargo flights and Charter decreased by 13% and
traditional scheduled flights by 7%. “Low cost” flights decreased by only 2% and now
account for 20.8% of the traffic share (19.9% in 2008) as shown in Figure 20.
3.4%
58.5%
1.7%
2.6%
6.4%
7.5%
19.9%
3.2%
1.8%
58.5%
2.8%
5.9%
6.9%
20.8%
Low-Cost
Business Aviation
Charter
Cargo
Military
Other
Traditional
2009 Scheduled
2008
All IFR
Flights
source : EUROCONTROL/STATFOR (ESRA2008)
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
16 %
18 %
20 %
22 %
24 %
01/91
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Performance Review Report 2009(19)
