C. Emerging Threats
these countermeasures are not yet fully effective, although they could minimize the
threat. Hence there is a need to proceed diligently with the development of systems that are guaranteed to be able to prevent this type of attack against civil aviation.
For a successful missile attack against aircraft, the .ring position has to be located within range of the .ight path. A missile’s guidance system is such that the weapon has to be .red within a few degrees of the .ight path if the infra-red guidance is to locate the target. Accordingly, a possible preventive measure would be to prevent terrorists from getting into a .ring position with their missiles. However, it would be very dif.cult to cut off areas of up to 6 km wide that lie in the paths of aircraft as they land and take off. This measure is therefore impractica-ble if not impossible.54
This dif.culty can be overcome to an extent by patrolling the outer areas of airports in times of stringent security conditions might prevent such attacks. Even in times when no speci.c threat has been received, it is within the capacity of most States to monitor those strips of land from which a SAM could be launched and thus minimize the risk. At the same time, these security operations would deter terrorists from spending vital resources on buying SAMs given the limited possibilities for their use.
Finally, it must be noted that, whatever counter measures are used in responding to new and emerging threats in aviation, the thread which binds the fabric of anti-terrorism is risk management. As one commentator said, the achievement of safety in aviation is no longer an esoteric activity.55
It has to be a structured series of measures which starts by identifying hazards, and evaluating potential scenarios. It should end in the implementation of a management process. What is therefore needed is systematic assessment and a global means of ranking risks based on their seriousness and signi.cance.
X. The Diverse Nature of Missile Attacks
The use of SAMs and anti-tank rockets by terrorists goes back to 1973. On 5 September 1973 Italian police arrested .ve Middle-Eastern terrorists armed with SA-7s. The terrorists had rented an apartment under the .ight path to Rome Fumicino Airport and were planning to shoot down an El Al airliner coming in to land at the airport.56
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