44Guill (2000, p. 18).
civil and military aviation. The surface to air MANPAD is a light weapon which offers very little warning before impact, and is often destructive and lethal.45
They are cheap, easily carried, handled and concealed. It is claimed that there are at least 100,000 and possibly in excess of 500,000 systems in inventories around the world and several thousands of these are vulnerable to theft from State authorities.46
It is also claimed that there is a 70% chance that a civil aircraft will be destroyed if hit by a MANPAD.47
A study conducted and published in early 2005 by the Rand Corporation concludes that, based on the effects of the attacks of 11 September 2001, it is plausible for air travel in the United States to fall by 15–20% after a successful MANPADS attack on a commercial airliner in the United States.48
The international aviation community is aware that civil aircraft are particularly vulner-able to hand held ground to air missiles and that susceptibility avoidance techniques (calculated to avoid being hit) and vulnerability avoidance (survival after being hit) systems must be in place. This is particularly so since tracking the proliferation of MANPADS is dif.cult since any intelligence gathered on this particular threat is usually ex post facto, through the recovery of launchers or fragments from expended missiles. Contrary to popular belief, the MANPAD is considerably durable and can be used several years after inactivity, with recharged batteries.
The World’s attention to the deadly threat posed by MANPADS was further drawn in November 2002 when there was an unsuccessful attempt to bring down a civilian aircraft leaving Mombasa, Kenya. Over the past 35 years, signi.cant developments have taken place in dangerous weapons systems creating more opportunities for terrorists. The ready acceptance of new modern technologies by the international community and our growing dependence on them have created many targets, such as nuclear and civil aircraft in .ight. Similarly, developments in electronics and microelectronics, and the trend towards miniaturization and simpli-.cation have resulted in a greater availability of tactical weapons with longer ranges and more accuracy that are also simpler to operate. One of the most effective developments in individual weaponry is portable, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), which are lightweight and easy to operate. They can usually be carried and operated by a single person. The United States-made Stinger, the British-made Blowpipe and the Russian-made SA-7 missiles are examples of these smaller weapons. These are shoulder-.red, anti-aircraft missiles that have infra-red, heat-seeking sensors in the projectile that guide it to the heat emitted from an aircraft engine. It is known that more than 60 States possess SA-7 missiles and there is no
45The lethality of the weapon can be re.ected by the 340 MANPADS used by Afghan Mujahedeen rebels to successfully hit 269 soviet aircraft. See: http://www.janes.com/security/international_ security/news/.
46MANPADS, Ploughshares Monitor, Autumn 2004, at 83.
47MANPADS, Ploughshares Monitor, Autumn 2004, at 83. The deadly accuracy and ease of
handling of MANPADS were demonstrated when Somali gunmen shot down two US MH-60 中国航空网 www.aero.cn 航空翻译 www.aviation.cn 本文链接地址：Aviation Security Law 航空安全法(23)
