A Concept Paper
For
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
An FAA/EUROCONTROL Cooperative Effort on
Air Traffic Modeling for Separation Standards
20 May 1998
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`TABLE OF CONTENTS
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................iii
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................................ 1-1
1.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 1-1
1.2 SCOPE OF JOINT ACTIVITIES .............................................................................................................. 1-1
2.0 ESTABLISHING SEPARATION STANDARDS................................................................................... 2-1
2.1 SOME HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEPARATION STANDARDS .................................... 2-1
2.1.1 Early Separation Standards ................................................................................................................ 2-1
2.1.2 Target Levels of Safety....................................................................................................................... 2-3
2.1.3 Recent Events ................................................................................................................................... 2-5
2.2 THE SEPARATION STANDARD ESTABLISHMENT PROCESS........................................................... 2-6
2.2.1 The FAA Separation Standard Establishment Process........................................................................ 2-6
2.2.2 The European Separation Standard Establishment Process ................................................................ 2-7
List of References .............................................................................................................................. 2-8
3.0 COLLISION MODELING DEFINITIONS AND RISK METRICS..................................................... 3-1
3.1 DEFINITIONS......................................................................................................................................... 3-1
3.2 RISK METRICS - WHAT IS AN APPROPRIATE METRIC FOR DEFINING THE RISK OF
COLLISION? ........................................................................................................................................... 3-2
3.3 THE ACCEPTABILITY OF RISK............................................................................................................ 3-6
Reference ........................................................................................................................................ 3-7
4.0 MODELING CRITERIA....................................................................................................................... 4-1
4.1 LIST OF CRITERIA ................................................................................................................................ 4-1
4.2 CONSIDERATIONS IN DETERMINING THE BENEFITS OF REDUCED SEPARATION MINIMA .... 4-4
4.2.1 Potential Benefits of Reducing Separation Standards ......................................................................... 4-4
4.2.2 Impact on Sector Capacity ................................................................................................................. 4-4
4.2.3 Impact on Total NAS Capacity .......................................................................................................... 4-5
5.0 APPROACHES TO COLLISION RISK ANALYSIS............................................................................ 5-1
5.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 5-1
5.2 HAZARD ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO COLLISION RISK ................................................ 5-2
5.2.1 A Brief Review of Existing Hazard Analysis Techniques................................................................... 5-3
5.2.2 Some Applications of Hazard Analysis for ATC Systems................................................................... 5-6
5.3 PROBABILISTIC, ANALYTIC MODELS................................................................................................ 5-7
5.3.1 Probabilistic/Analytic vs. Numerical Simulation Models ................................................................... 5-7
5.3.2 Examples of Probabilistic, Collision Risk Models ............................................................................ 5-10
5.3.3 Theoretical vs. Empirical Probability Distributions.......................................................................... 5-12
5.3.4 Intervention Considerations............................................................................................................. 5-15
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