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procedures depends on several quantities which cannot be
determined exactly. This report uses Monte Carlo methods. As an
example, the report considers the proposed 90 mile lateral
separation for North Atlantic jet aircraft.
EU. Loiderman, E., "A Planning Tool for Predicting Enroute ATC Conflicts
and Designing ATC Sectors," Cambridge: MIT Flight Transportation
APPENDIX B
BIBLIOGRAPHY
B-23
Laboratory, Sept. 1986, FTL Report R-86-14.
EV. Machol, R. E. and R. B. Rovinsky , "Some More Challenging Aviation OR
Problems," Detroit: ORSA/TIMS Conference, Oct. 24, 1994
1. Challenging problems facing the government sector include:
collision-risk models; cooperative airline/air traffic control
decision-making; R&D portfolio analysis; capital facilities
investment analysis and how to redesign the airspace to take full
advantage of new satellite and avionics technologies. We outline
each problem and describe current and future plans.
2. A general discussion of the title subject including a bit about
past collision risk modeling and separation standards, airspace
design, delays, and investment. Probably nothing new to anyone on
the team.
EW. Machol, Robert E. 1975, "An Aircraft Collision Model," Management
Science, Vol. 21, No. 10, (June 1975) pp. 1089-1101.
EX. Machol, Robert E., "Thirty Years of Modeling Midair Collisions,"
Interfaces, Institute for Operations Research and the Management
Sciences, 25:5 September-October 1995 (151-172)
1. For 30 years, operations researchers have developed mathematical
models of processes leading to possible collisions of aircraft
flying in proximity to one another in order to estimate the risk
of collision. These "collision risk models" were applied in the
1960s to determine safe separation standards between pairs of
co-altitude aircraft on parallel courses over the North Atlantic
Ocean. The models have been and are being continually refined and
improved. They have been applied to different geographic regions
(for example, the Pacific Ocean and domestic airspace), to
different flight regimes (for example, high-altitude cruise and
landing on closely spaced runways), and to different types of
separation (vertical and longitudinal as well as lateral).
EY. Marks, Brian L., "Air traffic [Control] Separation Standards and
Collision Risk," Farnborough, United Kingdom, Royal Aircraft
Establishment, RAE Tech Note No. Math 91, 1963.
1. Said by some to be the work from which the Reich model was
derived.
EZ. May, G. T. A., "A Method for Predicting the Number of Near Mid-Air
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
B-24
Collisions in a Defined Airspace," London: J Inst Navigation, April
1971.
1. Note some of the expressions in this reference need correcting.
2. Topic: Mathematical models for collision risk
FA. Mclaughlin, Michael F. and Andrew D., "Safety Study of TCAS II for
Logic Version 6.04," McLean, VA: Mitre Corp., July 1992, 99 pgs.
(ADNUMBER: ADA256364.)
1. A new System Safety Study of Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance
System II (TCAS II) was performed to compare the safety of logic
version 6.04 with the present version 6.0. The study uses a
considerable body of encounter data extracted from Automated Radar
Terminal System (ARTS) ground-based radar data at eight U.S.
sites. Encounter geometries are modeled using the statistics of
the observed data. The performance of TCAS logic is simulated
using both complete logic versions. The perceived separation
statistics are combined with altimetry error models to calculate
risk for each encounter geometry. These results are combined in
the proportions of encounter geometries found in the airspace at
each site. Using a fault tree for the Critical Near Midair
Collision event, the Risk Ratio is calculated for each logic
version relative to the risk of not using TCAS. This result is
discussed in the context of the improved compatibility of the
newer logic with respect to the Air Traffic Control (ATC) system,
which would increase overall safety.
FB. Meskhat, Leila and Dyana Mugijanto, "Midair Collision Risk Model,"
Washington: The George Washington University, School of Engineering
and Applied Science, Department of Operations Research, Problems in
Operations Research #OR 291, May 1997
FC. Millhollen, A., "Summary of Air-to-Air Visual Detection Data,"
Control Data Corp., FAA-RD-73-40, 1973
1. An analysis of tests conducted to determine the ability of pilots
to visually identify aircraft in time to take evasive action.
Specific cases of near collisions are cited to show feasibility of
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a concept paper for separation safety modeling(78)
