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5.3.5 Analysis of Separation Standards .................................................................................................... 5-17
5.4 FAST-TIME (MONTE CARLO) AND REAL-TIME SIMULATION MODELS ..................................... 5-18
5.4.1 Real-Time Simulation Modeling ..................................................................................................... 5-19
5.4.2 Fast-Time (Monte Carlo) Simulation Models................................................................................... 5-22
5.4.3 Fast-Time Simulations using the Airspace Simulation and Analysis for TERPS (ASAT)
Computer System ............................................................................................................................ 5-22
5.4.4 Evaluation of Simulation Results..................................................................................................... 5-25
5.4.5 Obtaining a Maximum Allowable TCV Rate Based on a Target Level of Safety .............................. 5-26
5.4.6 Summary........................................................................................................................................ 5-28
5.5 HUMAN FACTORS IN ATM SAFETY MODELING: THE VARIABILITY IN HUMAN ACTIONS... 5-28
List of References ............................................................................................................................ 5-30
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
viii
6.0 EXISTING MODELS AND MODELING TOOLS ............................................................................... 6-1
6.1 THE ANALYTIC BLUNDER RISK MODEL (ABRM)............................................................................. 6-1
6.2 TRAFFIC ORGANIZATION AND PERTURBATION ANALYZER (TOPAZ) ........................................ 6-8
6.3 THE NATIONAL AIRSPACE RESOURCE INVESTMENT MODEL (NARIM).................................... 6-11
6.4 THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AERONAUTICS ORGANIZATION (ICAO) COLLISION RISK
MODEL................................................................................................................................................. 6-15
6.5 BOEING ADS STUDY ........................................................................................................................... 6-16
6.6 PARALLEL APPROACH BLUNDER MODELING ............................................................................... 6-18
6.7 ICAO REQUIRED NAVIGATION PERFORMANCE (RNP) ................................................................. 6-20
6.8 THE REDUCED AIRCRAFT SEPARATION RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL (RASRAM) .................... 6-21
6.9 THE AIRSPACE SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS FOR TERPS (ASAT) SYSTEM ............................. 6-22
6.10 TOTAL AIRSPACE AND AIRPORT MODELLER (TAAM) ................................................................. 6-23
Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... 6-25
List of References ............................................................................................................................ 6-26
Additional References for Model Evaluation (re: TOPAZ).............................................................. 6-27
7.0 FACTORS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SEPARATION SAFETY ................................................. 7-1
7.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 7-1
7.2 FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE SEPARATION SAFETY.............................................................. 7-2
8.0 DATA NEEDS AND MODEL CALIBRATION .................................................................................... 8-1
8.1 THE REQUIREMENT FOR DATA .......................................................................................................... 8-1
8.2 SOURCES OF DATA ............................................................................................................................... 8-1
8.3 TYPES OF DATA ................................................................................................................................... 8-2
8.4 DATA REPOSITORIES........................................................................................................................... 8-3
8.4.1 The National Aviation Safety Data Analysis Center (NASDAC) ....................................................... 8-3
8.4.2 Performance Monitoring Analysis Capability (PMAC) ..................................................................... 8-5
8.5 MODEL VALIDATION ........................................................................................................................... 8-6
APPENDIX A
AN ANNOTATED OUTLINE OF FACTORS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SEPARATION
SAFETY ................................................................................................................................................ A-1
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a concept paper for separation safety modeling(2)
