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with ATC and aircraft simulators may be also be needed to obtain the necessary data.
Similar experiments have been conducted in close parallel runway approach studies. Most
of the data obtained in these parallel approach studies would not be applicable to the study
of en route separation safety. The air traffic controller reaction times would not be
SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING
6-8
applicable, as the en route operational environment is quite different from the terminal
environment. It is less clear as to whether pilot and aircraft reaction times would differ
significantly in the two environments. If time and funding for additional human-in-theloop
simulations are lacking, existing data might be sufficient for a rough estimate of
relative risk.
6.2 TRAFFIC ORGANIZATION AND PERTURBATION ANALYZER
(TOPAZ)
Summary
The Traffic Organization and Perturbation AnalyZer (TOPAZ) enables the evaluation of
safety for a given (e.g., new) operational Air Traffic Management (ATM) concept during
various flight phases. TOPAZ consists of a suite of analytical, model-based software
modules, including a high-level Petri net-based simulation environment and mathematical
packages to evaluate fatal ATM-related accidents. TOPAZ can incorporate probability
estimates of rare deviations from normal operating conditions, which significantly
distinguishes TOPAZ from commonly used, fast-time simulation environments, like the
Total Airspace and Airport Modeller (TAAM).
Description
TOPAZ is a tool designed to evaluate the safety/capacity of a given (or new) operational
ATM concept during various flight phases. One of the outstanding features of TOPAZ is
its ability to account for the role of the human in ATM safety. The Human Operator
Modeling to Evaluate Reliability, Organization and Safety (HOMEROS) module contains
controller and pilot performance models that are based on E. Hollnagel’s models of human
cognition [R6.2]. Human behavior is modeled as a dynamic interaction between the ATM
environment and a process of switching between different control modes that reflect
different degrees of sophistication of human action and reliability of performance. Key
factors in the switching process are the amount of perceived workload and time pressure.
These models avoid the need to select between a too-conservative and a too-optimistic
human reliability model.
TOPAZ consists of a suite of analytical model-based software modules that are used to
evaluate an operational ATM concept. The primary modules are the following:
· A high-level, Petri net-based simulation environment, for evaluating frequencies of
non-nominal event sequences. The main numerical packages are:
- A data base of high-level Petri net modules for human, environment, and systems
in ATM
- A data base of ATM-related hazard types, frequencies, and probability densities
- A user interface for the modular development of an application-dedicated, highlevel
Petri net
- A user interface for the execution of Monte Carlo simulations
EXISTING MODELS AND MODELING TOOLS
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· Various mathematical models to evaluate fatal ATM-related accidents (collision
between aircraft or uncontrolled flight into terrain due to crossing a wake vortex of a
preceding aircraft). There are numerical packages for the following evaluation types:
- Numerical evaluation of probability density functions of aircraft evolution with
time
- Fitting Gaussian mixtures to empirical, Monte Carlo, or numerical distributions
- Evaluating a generalized version of the Reich collision risk model
- Evaluating a probabilistic risk model of crossing the wake vortex of a preceding
aircraft (this package is under development at NLR’s Informatics division)
The execution of a safety/capacity evaluation exercise consists of three corresponding
steps:
· Assess the frequency of safety-critical, non-nominal event sequences through running
Monte Carlo simulations with the high-level Petri net simulator.
· Evaluate the probability of fatal ATM-related accidents (collisions between aircraft, or
collision into terrain due to crossing a wake vortex of a preceding aircraft), through a
subsequent use of the various packages.
· Through a spreadsheet, combine the results obtained into relevant ATM safety
measures (fatal accident risks, economic risk, individual risk, and societal risk).
Inputs Required
In order to execute an operationally truly relevant safety/capacity evaluation of a given
(new) operational ATM concept, a significant amount of input material has to be
collected:
· Description of the operational ATM concept to be evaluated. This might be done up
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a concept paper for separation safety modeling(40)
