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10. Probability forecast—a given percentage that describes the probability of thunderstorms and precipitation occurring in the coming hours. This forecast is not used for the first 6 hours of the 24-hour forecast.
Example:
TAF KPIR 111130Z 111212 15012KT P6SM BKN090 TEMPO 1214 5SM BR
FM1500 16015G25KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
FM0000 14012KT P6SM BKN080 OVC150 PROB40 0004 3SM TSRA BKN030CB
FM0400 1408KT P6SM SCT040 OVC080 TEMPO0408 3SM TSRA OVC030CB
BECMG 0810 32007KT=
Explanation:
Routine TAF for Pierre, South Dakota on the 11th day of the month, at 1130Z valid for 24 hours from 1200Z on the 11th to 1200Z on the 12th wind from 150° at 12 knots visibility greater than 6 statute miles, broken clouds at 9,000 feet, temporarily, between 1200Z and 1400Z, visibility 5 statute miles in mist.
From 1500Z, winds from 160° at 15 knots, gusting to 25 knots, visibility greater than 6 statute miles, clouds scattered at 4,000 feet and broken at 25,000 feet.
From 0000Z wind from 140° at 12 knots; visibility greater than 6 statute miles, clouds broken at 8,000 feet, overcast at 15,000 feet between 0000Z and 0400Z, there is 40 percent probability of visibility 3 statute miles thunderstorm with moderate rain showers clouds broken at 3,000 feet with cumulonimbus clouds.
From 0400Z winds from 140°at 8 knots visibility greater than 6 miles clouds at 4,000 scattered and overcast at 8,000 temporarily between 0400Z and 0800Z visibility 3 miles, thunderstorms with moderate rain showers clouds overcast at 3,000 feet with cumulonimbus clouds.
Becoming between 0800Z and 1000Z wind from 320° at 7 knots end of report (=).Area Forecasts (FA)
The aviation area forecast (FA) gives a picture of clouds, general weather conditions, and visual meteorological conditions (VMC) expected over a large area encompassing several states. There are six areas for which area forecasts are published in the contiguous 48 states. Area forecasts are issued three times a day and are valid for 18 hours. This type of forecast gives information vital to en route operations as well as forecast information for smaller airports that do not have terminal forecasts.Inflight Weather Advisories
Inflight weather advisories are forecasts provided to en route aircraft, and detail potentially hazardous weather. These advisories are also available to pilots prior to departure for flight planning purposes. Airman’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET)
AIRMETs (report type designator WA) are issued every 6 hours with intermediate updates issued as needed for a particular area forecast region. The information contained in an AIRMET is of operational interest to all aircraft, but the weather section concerns phenomena considered potentially hazardous to light aircraft and aircraft with limited operational capabilities. An AIRMET includes forecast of moderate icing, moderate turbulence, sustained surface winds of 30 knots or greater, widespread areas of ceilings less than 1,000 feet and/or visibilities less than 3 miles, and extensive mountain obscurities. Each AIRMET bulletin has a fixed alphanumeric designator, and is numbered sequentially for easy identification, beginning with the first issuance of the day. SIERRA is the AIRMET code used to denote IFR and
4-40
mountain obscuration; TANGO is used to denote turbulence, strong surface winds, and low-level wind shear; and ZULU is used to denote icing and freezing levels.
Example:
DFWT WA 241650
AIRMET TANGO UPDT 3 FOR TURBC… STG SFC WINDS AND LLWS VALID UNTIL 242000 AIRMET TURBC… OK TX…UPDT FROM OKC TO DFW TO SAT TO MAF TO CDS TO OKC OCNL MDT TURBC BLO 60 DUE TO STG AND GUSTY LOW LVL WINDS. CONDS CONTG BYD 2000ZSignificant Meteorological Information (SIGMET)
SIGMETs (report type designator WS) are inflight advisories concerning nonconvective weather that is potentially hazardous to all aircraft. They report weather forecasts that include severe icing not associated with thunderstorms, severe or extreme turbulence or clear air turbulence (CAT) not associated with thunderstorms, dust storms, or sandstorms that lower surface or inflight visibilities to below 3 miles, and volcanic ash. SIGMETs are unscheduled forecasts that are valid for 4 hours, but if the SIGMET relates to hurricanes, it is valid for 6 hours.
A SIGMET is issued under an alphabetic identifier, from November through Yankee, excluding Sierra and Tango. The first issuance of a SIGMET is designated as a UWS, or Urgent Weather SIGMET. Re-issued SIGMETs for the same weather phenomenon are sequentially numbered until the weather phenomenon ends.
Example:
SFOR WS 100130 SIGMET ROME02 VALID UNTIL 100530 OR WA FROM SEA TO PDT TO EUG TO SEA OCNL MOGR CAT BTN 280 AND 350 EXPCD DUE TO JTSTR. CONDS BGNG AFT 0200Z CONTG BYD 0530Z.Convective Significant Meteorological Information (WST)
A Convective SIGMET (WST) is an inflight weather advisory issued for hazardous convective weather that affects the safety of every flight. Convective SIGMETs are issued for severe thunderstorms with surface winds greater than 50 knots, hail at the surface greater than or equal to ¾ inch in diameter, or tornadoes. They are also issued to advise pilots of embedded thunderstorms, lines of thunderstorms, or thunderstorms with heavy or greater precipitation that affect 40 percent or more of a 3,000 square foot or greater region.
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