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The helicopters China produces under license from or has co-developed with Eurocopter are unlikely to generate significant export sales, as each type also has production lines in France. However, the existence of domestic production capabilities for a growing range of helicopters may mean diminished sales in China for non-Chinese heli-copter manufacturers. The huge potential demand for helicopters in the country, moreover, may mean that additional types will be devel-oped over the coming decade, possibly purely domestic designs.
China’s fixed-wing general aviation manufacturing capabilities seem unlikely to develop rapidly in the near future. Current produc-tion capabilities are extremely limited, and the lack of a significant domestic market for fixed-wing general aviation has resulted in little immediate incentive to expand these capabilities. As of 2006, Dassault Falcon Jet Corporation expected China to acquire 300 new business jets by 2015 (Sun, 2006), but China does not currently produce any business jets, and none are under development.
If the development of the CZ-5 series of launch vehicles is suc-cessful, China’s space launch capabilities will improve significantly in the future. The CZ-5 series will roughly triple China’s lift capacity to both LEO and GEO. Also, a new generation of lighter launch vehicles, the CZ-6 and CZ-7 series, is under development and should increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of China’s space launch capabili-ties (Perrett, 2010d, pp. 22–23). The reliability problems that plagued China’s space launch vehicles in the 1990s seem to have been resolved, so the primary limitation on China’s competitiveness in the commer-cial space launch market today is U.S. export restrictions. The effect of these restrictions is likely to erode in coming years, however, as non-
U.S. satellite companies develop an increasing range of satellites with-out U.S. technology content.
Near-term prospects for China’s satellite capabilities are less promising, given the problems that have plagued the DFH-4 platform. However, there is no reason to believe that these problems will not be resolved in the next few years, providing China with the basis for an improved military satellite-communications capability, as well as increasingly competitive commercial communications satellites. Chi-na’s surveillance- and reconnaissance-satellite capabilities can probably already satisfy the majority of military requirements and will undoubt-edly improve further over the next decade, with greater resolution and the possible deployment of an X-band ocean-surveillance radar satel-lite. As these capabilities improve, China may acquire the option to enter the commercial satellite imagery market without compromising its military imagery satellite capabilities. China’s Compass PNT sat-ellite system seems to be on schedule and, if so, will provide world-wide coverage by 2020. This will provide China with an alternative to relying on the U.S. GPS and Russian Glonass system for military purposes. Whether there will be a revenue-generating commercial market for the Compass system, given the availability of the free public GPS system, however, is questionable. Finally, China will continue to develop and deploy improved weather satellites in future years. Thus, by 2020, China will likely have a fully deployed PNT system, high-capacity civil and military communications satellites, high-resolution surveillance and reconnaissance satellites, and highly capable weather satellites.
中国航空网 www.aero.cn
航空翻译 www.aviation.cn
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Ready for Takeoff China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry(75)
