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In fact, high-speed-rail plans in China are quite extensive. Accord-ing to the Chinese government’s Medium- to Long-Term Railroad Net-work Development Plan (2008), China will construct approximately 16,000 km2 of high-speed passenger designated lines (PDL) by 2020, with a targeted average speed of over 200 km/hr. These will include the eight PDL trunk lines in the so-called “four vertical, four horizontal (四纵四横 )” national grid, in addition to shorter intercity commuter lines to be built in a number of major population centers.
The 4×4 national grid will consist of four north-south corridors and four east-west corridors. The north-south corridors will comprise the Beijing-Shanghai PDL, the Beijing-Wuhan-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong PDL, the Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin PDL, and the Hangzhou-Ningbo-Fuzhou-Shenzhen PDL (the Coastal PDL). The four east-west corridors will comprise the Xuzhou-Zhengzhou- Lanzhou PDL, the Shanghai-Nanchang-Changsha-Kunming PDL, the Qingdao-Shijiazhuang-Taiyuan PDL, and the Shanghai-Nanjing-Wuhan-Chongqing-Chengdu PDL. These lines will total roughly 13,000 km, with nearly 3,500 km already completed by mid-2010 (see Figure 2.10).
In addition, China plans to build approximately 3,800 km of high-speed intercity rail lines in about a dozen metropolitan areas, to add to the 500 km already in existence by mid-2010. These shorter commuter lines will average about 200 km each, with a design speed of around 250 km/hr. These lines can presumably offer residents of major metropolitan centers more options for airport access.
During the same period, the basic framework for the rail net in western China will also be completed, with the addition of 40,000 km of tracks. It is said that some of these new lines will be built to accom-modate speeds of 200 to 250 km/hr for both passengers and freight. These are also considered high-speed rails, although they are not part of the primary PDL grid.
If all of these projects are completed as planned, by 2020, China will have more than 18,000 km of high-speed rail lines with speeds of 200 km/hr or more, accounting for more than 50 percent of the global total. With the exception of several major cities in the West (e.g., Urumqi, Lhasa), all provincial capitals will be reachable from Beijing by rail in less than 8 hours (“High-Speed Rail”) (see Figure 2.11).
SOURCE:.Ministry.of.Railways.(China),.Medium-.to.Long-Term.Rail.Net.Planning
Map—2008.Revision.
RAND.MG1100-2.10
High-speed rail is widely expected to pose a serious challenge to the airline industry, at least for travel between China’s major coastal urban centers. As one analyst observes, the typical air travel time between Shanghai and Beijing, under normal weather conditions, is around 5 hours. This includes travel time to and from the airport, the time spent going through security checkpoints, boarding time, etc. On existing conventional trains, the trip would take 15 to 16 hours, but by express high-speed trains, it would take only 5 to 6 hours, roughly
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