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The dedicated air freight market, like the passenger market, has above-average growth rates in Asia. However, air cargo accounted for less than 6 percent of departures worldwide and less than 8 percent of kilometers flown in 2007, according to the International Air Trans-port Association (2008). Boeing projects a demand for 2,490 freighters worldwide over the next 20 years (Boeing, 2010, p. 10), but more than two-thirds of those will be converted from aging passenger planes. Similarly, Airbus estimates a demand for 3,439 freighters but expects that 75 percent of the demand will be met with converted passenger planes, leaving only 800 to 1,000 purpose-built freight aircraft. Airbus projects the Asia-Pacific freighter fleet to account for 37 percent of the global freighter fleet by 2028 (Airbus, 2009, p. 153). If 37 percent of 1,000 air freighters built over the next 20 years are sold in Asia, this will not significantly affect the total number of large commercial air-craft expected to be sold in China during that period. The total will probably be around 4,000 (see below), even if all 370 newly built freight aircraft are purchased by China.
The development of the rail and highway systems within China is likely to have minimal impact on future air freight trends. Air freight is the most expensive method for moving cargo, and it is generally only used when transit time is an issue or the cargo has a high-monetary-value density, e.g., fresh flowers or computer chips. Improvements in China’s rail and highway system are unlikely to result in a significant proportion of the relatively small amount of domestic freight that cur-rently travels by air being shifted to ground transportation. In any case, most of China’s air freight traffic is international, and improvements in China’s domestic road and rail system are unlikely to reduce travel times by a significant enough amount for cargos that can be delivered by air in a day or two to instead be sent by ship, rail, or truck.
China’s general aviation sector is still in a relatively early stage of development. According to CAAC sources, as of the end of 2009, there were only 997 registered fixed- and rotary-wing general aviation aircraft, including law-enforcement helicopters, in the country. In con-trast, at least 230,000 general aviation aircraft were registered in the United States (Cheng, 2010). At present, China simply has not devel-oped an adequate physical or regulatory infrastructure for general avia-tion. As of the end of 2008, it had only 71 airports for general aviation, apart from the 160 airports used for scheduled flights (compared with more than 18,000 general aviation airports in the United States), and the country also had a serious shortage of general aviation pilots (Li and Wang, 2009, p. 52). In particular, China’s severely restrictive air-space management regime is widely considered to be a bottleneck to the development of the general aviation market. Low-altitude airspace is restricted in most of China, and most general aviation flights must secure prior clearance, a process that typically takes at least several days (Xin, 2006). However, as of October 2010, reforms were under way to lift the restriction on low-altitude airspace (below 1,000 meters), start-ing with Guangdong and the three Manchurian provinces on a trial basis (Wang and Xin, 2010)
中国航空网 www.aero.cn
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Ready for Takeoff China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry(12)
