SOURCE:.International.Air.Transport.Association,.2008.
RAND.MG1100-2.12
Passenger-kilometers..own.permillion.of.GDP.(thousands)
States, but its population density is both higher and much more con-centrated, with more than 90 percent of the population living in the eastern half of the country. However, alternative transportation meth-ods, rails and roads, are not as developed as those in Japan, Germany, or the United States, leaving Chinese citizens more dependent on air transport.
China’s continuing development of rails and roads is likely to increase their competitiveness with air transport, which will limit the growth of domestic air transport. On the other hand, given China’s vast expanses, rail travel is unlikely to replace air travel to the same extent that it has in Japan, and increasing per-capita income will likely result in more Chinese citizens traveling both domestically and abroad (especially if the Renminbi is allowed to strengthen). Thus, the net effect is that, in PPP terms, China’s RPK/GNI ratio will likely increase to a level somewhere between those of the United States and Japan; and over the next two decades, China’s air transportation market may continue to grow at a rate somewhat faster than the economy in PPP terms,7 but projections extrapolated from U.S. figures are likely to be overstated. In short, Boeing’s projection appears reasonable, if we assume an average Chinese real growth rate of 7 to 8 percent over the next two decades.
7 Although GDP growth is typically measured in nominal terms, the uncertainty surround-ing China’s future exchange-rate policy makes projections in nominal terms inadvisable.
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