Ready for Takeoff China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry(15)

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As shown, China’s RPK per unit of GDP at official exchange rates is greater than those of Brazil, Japan, and Germany and over 80 percent of the U.S. ratio. When the PPP value of China’s GNI is used, however, the Chinese ratio is significantly below those of the United States and Germany and roughly equivalent to those of Japan and Brazil. Thus, China’s unusually high RPK/GDP ratio may be in part an artifact of an undervalued RMB. Nonetheless, the significant difference between the U.S. and Japanese ratios also suggests a range of possibilities for the development of Chinese air transportation. The difference between the U.S. and Japanese air markets and the direction in which China is likely to trend will be explored below.

Brazil China Japan Germany United.States
Total.carriers
SOURCE:.International.Air.Transport.Association,.2008;.World.Bank.Data.Book,.
undated.

RAND.MG1100-2.7
China’s future GDP growth is a much-debated issue. Many believe that China cannot indefinitely sustain its double-digit GDP growth rates or even its 8 percent GDP growth rate targets. We used a range of GDP growth rates (4, 6, 8, and 10 percent) over the next 20 years to bound our projections. Combining those four growth rates with three RPK/GDP trends (U.S.-like, current China, and Japan-like) produces 12 projections for the growth of the Chinese carrier fleet. They are plotted in Figure 2.8, along with a linear extrapolation of Boeing’s 2029 projection. We assume that China’s current fleet is rela-tively new and that very few current planes require replacement in the next 20 years.
Boeing’s projection is equivalent to the current RPK/GDP ratio with an average 7 percent annual GDP growth for the next 20 years, or following a U.S.-like RPK/GDP trend with 6 percent GDP growth. Given the effects of compounding, 10 percent growth rates for 20 years and the current RPK/GDP ratio would result in fleet growth of almost
Figure 2.8 Projections of the Growth of the Chinese Commercial Fleet Based on Alternative RPK/GDP Ratios and Average GDP Growth Rates Compared with Boeing’s Projection
U.S.-like.RPK/GDP.trend
with.10%.GDP.growth U.S.-like.RPK/GDP.trend with.8%.GDP.growth
U.S.-like.RPK/GDP.trend
with.6%.GDP.growth U.S.-like.RPK/GDP.trend with.4%.GDP.growth
Current.RPK/GDP.trend
with.10%.GDP.growth Current.RPK/GDP.trend with.8%.GDP.growth
Current.RPK/GDP.trend
with.6%.GDP.growth Current.RPK/GDP.trend with.4%.GDP.growth
Japan-like.RPK/GDP.trend
with.10%.GDP.growth Japan-like.RPK/GDP.trend with.8%.GDP.growth
Japan-like.RPK/GDP.trend
with.6%.GDP.growth Japan-like.RPK/GDP.trend with.4%.GDP.growth
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Boeing.2010–2029 projection
Year
RAND.MG1100-2.8

8,000 airplanes, more than double Boeing’s projection. However, an average growth rate of only 5 percent of GDP at the current RPK/GDP ratio or 8 percent GDP growth but trending toward the Japanese RPK/ GDP ratio would cut the 20-year projection to about 2,000 airplanes, half of Boeing’s projection.
　
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