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2 The figures for Australia, the United States, Brazil, and the global average are for 2006.
Projections of China’s Future Commercial Passenger Aircraft Market
Air transit growth is generally characterized by continuous steady growth punctuated by an occasional major setback, such as occurred in 2002 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks or in 2009 following the world financial meltdown. Historically, a country’s air transport volume has grown faster than its GDP. This results from increases in GDP per capita, which correlate with growth in disposable income and the time cost of business travelers relative to air travel costs.
Boeing’s Current Market Outlook 2010–2029 predicts world GDP growth at 3.2 percent and RPK growth at 5.3 percent over the next 20 years. This implies 3.3 percent growth in the world airliner fleet over the same time period (the number of airliners does not increase as fast as RPK because the average size of airplane used is also projected to increase). According to Boeing’s calculations, that translates into a demand for 30,900 new airplanes over the next 20 years, with more than one-third of those in the Asia-Pacific region, nearly doubling the size of the world’s airplane fleet, from 18,890 in 2010 to 36,300 in 2029 (Boeing, 2010). See Figure 2.6.
Boeing defines the Asia-Pacific region as China, India, Japan, Australia, and all of Southeast Asia. The anticipated demand of 10,320 airplanes includes regional jets, but they will account for only 5 percent of the total, according to Boeing.3 Boeing predicts that Asia-Pacific pas-senger traffic will grow from approximately 0.8 trillion RPK to 3.4 tril-lion RPK, with more than one-third of that growth coming from Chi-nese domestic traffic.4 Boeing appears to anticipate that Chinese airlines will purchase 38 percent of the 10,320 aircraft, or about 3,900 new aircraft, over the next 20 years for their domestic market. Boeing thus expects Chinese airline demand for airplanes to be at least 12 percent
3 Embraer, on the other hand, estimates that Chinese airlines alone will take delivery of 950 regional aircraft over the next 20 years (Francis, 2010c).
4 Boeing predicts that Asia-Pacific passenger traffic will grow from 0.6 trillion RPK to 2.1 trillion RPK, not counting Chinese domestic traffic, implying that domestic Chinese traffic will grow from 0.2 trillion RPK to 1.3 trillion RPK (Boeing, 2010, p. 5).
Figure 2.6 Boeing’s Market Outlook for 2010–2029
New.airplane.deliveries.by.region
New Delivery.unitsRegion airplanes
3% 2%
SOURCE:.Boeing,.2010..Used.with.permission.
RAND.MG1100-2.6
of world demand and perhaps more, given their share of international traffic (Boeing, 2010).
Because Boeing hopes to sell airplanes and thus is likely to be optimistic in its projections, it is prudent to calculate an independent estimate of the size of China’s future aircraft market. Figure 2.7 shows RPK flown in Brazil, China, Japan, Germany, and the United States as a proportion of GDP in U.S. dollars, gross national income (GNI) in purchasing power parity (PPP), and population.
中国航空网 www.aero.cn
航空翻译 www.aviation.cn
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