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· Include elements of Mission, Man, Machine, Management, and Media
· Start with history
· Encourage imagination and intuition
· Carry the scenario to the worst credible outcome
· Use a single person or group to edit
RESOURCES: A key resource for the "What If" tool is the Operations Analysis. It may be desirable to
add detail to it in the area to be targeted by the "What If" analysis. However, in most cases an OA can be
used as-is, if it is available. The "What If" tool is specifically designed to be used by personnel actually
involved in an operation. Therefore, the most critical what if resource is the involvement of operators and
their first lines supervisors. Because of its effectiveness, dynamic character, and ease of application, these
personnel are generally quite willing to support the "What If" process.
COMMENTS: The "What If" tool is so effective that the Occupational Safety and Health
Administration (OSHA) has designated as it one of six tools from among which activities facing
catastrophic risk situations must choose under the mandatory hazard analysis provisions of the process
safety standard.
EXAMPLES: Following (Figure 1.1.3A) is an extract from the typical output from the "What If" tool.
FAA System Safety Handbook, Appendix F
December 30, 2000
F-9
Figure 1.1.3A Example What If Analysis
Situation: Picture a group of 3 operational employees informally applying the round robin
procedure for the "What If" tool to a task to move a multi-ton machine from one location to
another. A part of the discussion might go as follows:
Joe: What if the machine tips over and falls breaking the electrical wires that run within the walls
behind it?
Bill: What if it strikes the welding manifolds located on the wall on the West Side? (This
illustrates “piggybacking” as Bill produces a variation of the hazard initially presented by Joe).
Mary: What if the floor fails due to the concentration of weight on the base of the lifting
device?
Joe: What if the point on the machine used to lift it is damaged by the lift?
Bill: What if there are electrical, air pressure hoses, or other attachments to the machine that are
not properly neutralized?
Mary: What if the lock out/tag out is not properly applied to energy sources servicing the
machine? And so on....
Note: The list above for example might be broken down as follows:
Group 1: Machine falling hazards
Group 2: Weight induced failures
Group 3: Machine disconnect and preparation hazards
These related groups of hazards are then subjected to the remaining five steps of the ORM
process.
1.1.4 THE SCENARIO PROCESS TOOL
FORMAL NAME: The Scenario Process tool
ALTERNATIVE NAMES: The mental movie tool.
PURPOSE: The Scenario Process tool is a time-tested procedure to identify hazards by visualizing them.
It is designed to capture the intuitive and experiential expertise of personnel involved in planning or
executing an operation, in a structured manner. It is especially useful in connecting individual hazards
into situations that might actually occur. It is also used to visualize the worst credible outcome of one or
more related hazards, and is therefore an important contributor to the risk assessment process.
APPLICATION: The Scenario Process tool should be used in most hazard identification applications,
including some time-critical applications. In the time-critical mode, it is indeed one of the few practical
FAA System Safety Handbook, Appendix F
December 30, 2000
F-10
tools, in that the user can quickly form a “mental movie” of the flow of events immediately ahead and the
associated hazards.
METHOD: The user of the Scenario Process tool attempts to visualize the flow of events in an
operation. This is often described as constructing a “mental movie”. It is often effective to close the eyes,
relax and let the images flow. Usually the best procedure is to use the flow of events established in the
OA. An effective method is to visualize the flow of events twice. The first time, see the events as they are
intended to flow. The next time, inject “Murphy” at every possible turn. As hazards are visualized, they
are recorded for further action. Some good guidelines for the development of scenarios are as follows:
Limit them to 60 words or less. Don’t get tied up in grammatical excellence (in fact they don’t have to be
recorded at all). Use historical experience but avoid embarrassing anyone. Encourage imagination (this
helps identify risks that have not been previously encountered). Carry scenarios to the worst credible
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