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In the third step, the goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome of this action. With the example of low ceilings at destination, for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by selecting a suitable alternate, knowing where to find good weather, and carrying sufficient fuel to reach it. This course of action would mitigate the risk. The pilot also has the option to eliminate it entirely by waiting for better weather.
Once the pilot has completed the 3P decision process and selected a course of action, the process begins anew because now the set of circumstances brought about by the course of action requires analysis. The decision-making process is a continuous loop of perceiving, processing and performing.
With practice and consistent use, running through the 3P cycle can become a habit that is as smooth, continuous, and automatic as a well-honed instrument scan. This basic set of practical risk management tools can be used to improve risk management. The 3P model has been expanded to include the CARE and TEAM models which offers pilots another way to assess and reduce risks associated with flying. Perceive, Process, Perform with CARE and TEAM
Most flight training activities take place in the “time-critical” timeframe for risk management. Figures 17-8 and 17-9 combine the six steps of risk management into an easy-to-remember 3P model for practical risk management: Perceive, Process, Perform with the CARE and TEAM models. Pilots can help perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist of: Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures. They can process hazards by using the CARE checklist of: Consequences, Alternatives, Reality, External factors. Finally, pilots can perform risk management by using the TEAM choice list of: Transfer, Eliminate, Accept, or Mitigate. These concepts are relatively new in the GA training world, but have been shown to be extraordinarily useful in lowering accident rates in the world of air carriers.
17-15
Figure 17-8. A real-world example of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip.
Ga
yle is a healthy and well-rested private pilot with approxi-mately 300 hours total flight time. Hazards include her lack of overall and cross-country experience and the fact that she has not flown at all in two months.PilotDeparture and destination airports have long runways. Weather is the main hazard. Although it is VFR, it is a typical summer day in the Mid-Atlantic region: hot (near 90 °F) hazy (visibility 7 miles), and humid with a density altitude of 2,500 feet. Weather at the destination airport (located in the mountains) is still IMC, but forecast to improve to visual meteorological conditions (VMC) prior to her arrival. En route weather is VMC, but there is an AIRMET Sierra for pockets of IMC over mountain ridges along the proposed route of flight. EnVironmentAircraftAlthough it does not have a panel-mount GPS or weather avoidance gear, the aircraft—a C182 Skylane with long-rangefuel tanks—is in good mechanical condition with no inoperative equipment. The instrument panel is a standard “six-pack.”External PressuresGayle is making the trip to spend a weekend with relatives she does not see very often. Her family is very excited and has made a number of plans for the visit.Pilots can perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist:To manage the risk associated with her inexperience and lack of recent flight time, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk entirely by having another pilot act as PIC. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk and fly anyway. • Mitigate the risk by flying with another pilot. Gayle chooses to mitigate the major risk by hiring a CFI to accompany her and provide dual cross-country instruction. An added benefit is the opportunity to broaden her flying experience. PilotTo manage the risk associated with hazy conditions and mountainous terrain, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk of VFR in these conditions by asking an instrument-rated pilot to fly the trip under IFR. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the risk by careful preflight planning, filing a VFR flight plan, requesting VFR flight following, and using resources such as Flight Watch. Detailed preflight planning must be a vital part of Gayle’s weather risk mitigation strategy. The most direct route would put her over mountains for most of the trip. Because of the thick haze and pockets of IMC over mountains, Gayle might mitigate the risk by modifying the route to fly over valleys. This change will add 30 minutes to her estimated time of arrival (ETA), but the extra time is a small price to pay for avoiding possible IMC over mountains. Because her destination airport is IMC at the time of departure, Gayle needs to establish that VFR conditions exist at other airports within easy driving distance of her original destination. In addition, Gayle should review basic information (e.g., traffic pattern altitude, runway layout, frequencies) for these alternate airports. To further mitigate risk and practice good cockpit resource management, Gayle should file a VFR flight plan, use VFR flight following, and call Flight Watch to get weather updates en route. Finally, basic functions on her handheld GPS should also be practiced. EnvironmentAircraftTo manage risk associated with any doubts about the aircraft’s mechanical condition, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk by using a different airplane. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the remaining (residual) risk through review of aircraft performance and careful preflight inspection.Since she finds no problems with the aircraft’s mechanical condition, Gayle chooses to mitigate any remaining risk through careful preflight inspection of the aircraft. External PressuresTo mitigate the risk of emotional pressure from family expectations that can drive a “get-there” mentality, Gayle can: • Transfer the risk by having her co-pilot act as PIC and make the continue/divert decision. • Eliminate the risk by canceling the trip. • Accept the risk. • Mitigate the risk by managing family expectations and making alternative arrangements in the event of diversion to another airport. Gayle and her co-pilot choose to address this risk by agreeing that each pilot has a veto on continuing the flight, and that they will divert if either becomes uncomfortable with flight conditions. Because the destination airport is still IMC at the time of departure, Gayle establishes a specific point in the trip—an en route VORTAC located between the destination airport and the two alternates—as the logical place for her “final” continue/divert decision. Rather than give her family a specific ETA that might make Gayle feel pressured to meet the schedule, she manages her family’s expectations by advising them that she will call when she arrives. Pilots can perform risk management by using the TEAM choice list:
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Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge航空知识手册3(64)
