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Several risk assessment models are available to assist in the process of assessing risk. The models, all taking slightly different approaches, seek a common goal of assessing risk in an objective manner. Two are illustrated below.
The most basic tool is the risk matrix. [Figure 17-4] It assesses two items: the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequence of that event.
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Likelihood of an Event
Likelihood is nothing more than taking a situation and determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. For example, a pilot is flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. The likelihood of encountering potential instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) is the first question the pilot needs to answer. The experiences of other pilots coupled with the forecast, might cause the pilot to assign “occasional” to determine the probability of encountering IMC.
The following are guidelines for making assignments.
• Probable—an event will occur several times.
• Occasional—an event will probably occur sometime.
• Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but is possible.
• Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to occur. Severity of an Event
The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage. If the individual in the example above is not an instrument flight rules (IFR) pilot, what are the consequences of him or her encountering inadvertent IMC conditions? In this case, because the pilot is not IFR rated, the consequences are catastrophic. The following are guidelines for this assignment.
• Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss
• Critical—severe injury, major damage
• Marginal—minor injury, minor damage
• Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor system damage
Simply connecting the two factors as shown in Figure 17-4 indicates the risk is high and the pilot must either not fly, or fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate, or control the risk.
Although the matrix in Figure 17-4 provides a general viewpoint of a generic situation, a more comprehensive program can be made that is tailored to a pilot’s flying. [Figure 17-5] This program includes a wide array of aviation related activities specific to the pilot and assesses health, fatigue, weather, capabilities, etc. The scores are added and the overall score falls into various ranges, with the range representative of actions that a pilot imposes upon himself or herself. Mitigating Risk
Risk assessment is only part of the equation. After determining the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For example, the pilot flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in MVFR conditions has several ways to reduce risk:
• Wait for the weather to improve to good visual flight rules (VFR) conditions.
• Take a pilot who is certified as an IFR pilot.
• Delay the flight.
• Cancel the flight.
• Drive.
One of the best ways to single pilots can mitigate risk is to use the IMSAFE checklist to determine physical and mental readiness for flying:
1. Illness—Am I sick? Illness is an obvious pilot risk.
2. Medication—Am I taking any medicines that might affect my judgment or make me drowsy?
3. Stress—Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Do I have money, health, or family problems? Stress causes concentration and performance problems. While the regulations list medical conditions that require grounding, stress is not among them. The pilot should consider the effects of stress on performance.
4. Alcohol—Have I been drinking within 8 hours? Within 24 hours? As little as one ounce of liquor, one bottle of beer, or four ounces of wine can impair flying skills. Alcohol also renders a pilot more susceptible to disorientation and hypoxia.
5. Fatigue—Am I tired and not adequately rested? Fatigue continues to be one of the most insidious hazards to flight safety, as it may not be apparent to a pilot until serious errors are made.
6. Eating—Have I eaten enough of the proper foods to keep adequately nourished during the entire flight?The PAVE Checklist
Another way to mitigate risk is to perceive hazards. By incorporating the PAVE checklist into preflight planning, the pilot divides the risks of flight into four categories: Pilot-in-command (PIC), Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures (PAVE) which form part of a pilot’s decision-making process.
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RISK ASSESSMEN
TColumn totalColumn totalSLEEP1. Did not sleep well or less than 8 hours2. Slept well20HOW DO YOU FEEL?1. Have a cold or ill2. Feel great3. Feel a bit off402WEATHER AT TERMINATION1. Greater than 5 miles visibility and 3,000 feet ceilings2. At least 3 miles visibility and 1,000 feet ceilings, but less than 3,000 feet ceilings and 5 miles visibility 3. IMC conditions134HOW IS THE DAY GOING?1. Seems like one thing after another (late, making errors, out of step)2. Great day30IS THE FLIGHT1. Day?2. Night?13PLANNING1. Rush to get off ground2. No hurry3. Used charts and computer to assist4. Used computer program for all planning Yes No5. Did you verify weight and balance? Yes No6. Did you evaluate performance? Yes No7. Do you brief your passangers on the Yes ground and in flight? No31030030302Pilot’s Name Flight FromToTOTAL SCORE0102030Not Complex FlightExercise CautionArea of ConcernEndangermentLow Risk
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Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge航空知识手册3(57)
