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downside risks and the main ones are the economic recovery stagnation and the
increasing oil prices. Some upside risks have also to be considered and, if our models
were overestimating the speed of the recovery last year, they could now
underestimate the speed of the recovery especially as some airlines have expansion
plans in these times of high load factors.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 7
Figure 11. Forecast for 2010 in Europe is for a weak growth.
Medium-term outlook
2012, 2013 and the EU emission trading scheme
The forecast for 2012 is expected to be for a higher growth than in 2011 with a value
of 3.7% (±2.5%). This jump, followed by the drop in 2013, is mainly explained by the
leap-year effect which adds about 0.3% to growth in 2012, then deducts 0.3% in 2013
for an apparent difference of more than 0.5% in growth. 2012 will also see an
increase in traffic demand from two major sporting events (see Annex D.6).
2012 is also the year3 when aviation should join the EU Emission Trading Scheme
(EU ETS). Aircraft operators of nearly all IFR flights arriving at or departing from an
aerodrome in any European Community Member State will need to surrender
allowances equal to their CO2 emissions from aviation activities. The additional costs
borne by the operators due to the aviation participation in the ETS will, in principal,
have an effect on the future demand for flights.
The effect of aviation participation in the ETS on passenger demand has been
examined for this forecast4. This study shows that there are two major factors that
combine to limit the impacts at the 2016 horizon:
· The downturn in traffic and relatively low forecast traffic levels in the mediumterm
mean there will be significantly fewer flights in 2016 than earlier studies may
3 Directive 2008/101/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 19 November 2008.
4 For more information about the ETS effect modeling contact statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
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have considered. So the difference between 2016 traffic and the ETS historical
baseline of 2004-2006 will be smaller.
· Partly in response to ETS, airlines and legislators are already targeting 1.5%-2%
reduction per year between now and 2020 in fuel consumption per seat kilometre.
This study took a conservative assumption of just 7% efficiency improvement per
flight from now to 2016 (so about 1%/year).
The results shown that the reduction in demand for flights up to 2016 due to airlines
passing the additional ETS costs onto passengers is likely to be very limited (around
0.1%). In result, the forecast number of flights in this forecast has not been reduced to
reflect the possible impact of ETS on demand.
Later years
In the later years, the growth will remain around 3% per year, and averages over the
7 years at 2.8% annually.
The traffic development is not uniform across the region. By 2016, the growth (in
percentage terms) is relatively stronger in the East (see Figure 1). In contrast, in
terms of the number of additional movements per day, the traffic will increase the
most in the big economies in the West (eg. Germany) but also in Turkey, which is
forecast to see one of the strongest traffic growth in Europe (see Figure 12).
Figure 12. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2016 v
2009).
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 9
3.2 Risks to the Forecast
Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (lowgrowth
to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast is prepared as a
main proportion of European States still have not exited recession, that started
in 2008. The late and weak economic recovery has an impact on forecast traffic
growth.
The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are:
· This forecast is prepared as the recent economic downturn continues to shake
the aviation industry. Traffic growth is riding on the outcome of the crisis as well
as the speed of the recovery. The economic forecasts (Figure 22) were updated in
February 2010. Nevertheless, the situation remains uncertain and the low- and
high-growth scenarios may not entirely capture the risks in the economies on both
side of the Atlantic.
· Network changes and route choice of airlines have a large influence on the
number of overflights. These are discussed in section 3.3. Recent changes in the
method will better capture the recent trends in overflights patterns, but future
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