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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 14 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
3.6 Comparison with earlier forecasts
The new medium-term forecast starts lower than the previous forecast. The
growth rates are similar in the later years but the annual average growth rate is
higher as the strong decline in 2009 is not now included.
Figure 16 shows the new forecast for the ESRA08 compared with the forecast from
end September (MTF09b). The actual traffic in 2009, which is used as the baseline
for the MTF10, is slightly lower than what was forecast by the MTF09b (by about
0.03 million fewer movements, about 0.3%). Also the first year of the forecast (2010)
is lower (about 0.15 million fewer movements, 1.5%) because of the weakening
prospects for growth in 2010 (see section 3.1). The refresh in September (MTF09b)
comprised the major economic downwards revision, which enabled a better
monitoring of the short-term forecast traffic growth.
In the following years, the traffic growth is expected to recover and result overall in
growth rates higher than those forecast at the end of last year (2.8% now, compared
to 2.0% in the MTF09b), mainly because the strong decline in 2009 does not now fall
in the 7-year period. The growth in the final periods of the forecast horizon is slower
(3%-4% now compared to 3.5%-5% previously).
In this forecast, the growth is also less limited by the airport constraints (due to lower
forecast number of movements, see 3.4). This has stronger effect in the high-growth
scenario (1.7% of unaccommodated flights compared to 1% in the base scenario).
Even though the growth in traffic is expected to recover, a ‘bounce-back’ to pre-2008
levels of traffic in terms of numbers of movements is not foreseen. Instead, traffic will
slightly increase in 2010, recover in 2011 and then continue in parallel with the
previous trend from this shifted lower level. The period of lost growth will result in
putting the traffic levels back by almost 4 years. The peak in terms of annual IFR
flights movements reached in 2008, is now forecast to be passed again only in 2012.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 15
Figure 16. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF09b dashed
lines, MTF10 solid lines).
Though the scope of the medium-term forecast is a traffic outlook for 7 years ahead,
a longer term perspective is certainly also of interest. The last long-term forecast,
LTF08 (see Ref. 5) was published in November 2008 and was based on the MTF08
(see Ref. 8), the latest medium-term forecast then available. The traffic situation in
2008 and 2009 and the medium-term outlook have changed significantly in the
meantime and the long-term forecast will be updated at the end of 2010.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 16 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
4. GLOSSARY
AAGR Average annual growth
ACC Area Control Centre
AEA Association of European Airlines
B (in tables) Baseline Scenario
CFMU Eurocontrol Central Flow Management Unit
CRCO Eurocontrol Central Route Charges Office
ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex B)
EU27 European Union (27 States)
FIR Flight Information Region
GDP Gross Domestic Product
H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario
HST High-Speed Train
IFR Instrument Flight Rules
L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
MTF Medium-Term Forecast
SES Single European Sky
STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service
STF Short-Term Forecast
TR Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs)
TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
UIR Upper Flight Information Region
Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary
for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref.9) and on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 17
ANNEX A. FORECAST METHOD
The EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast first estimates future airport-toairport
flights using both models of economic and industry developments and
also recent traffic trends. It then calculates which airspace those flights pass
through based on the routing observed in the baseline year, and recent trends
in overflights for each airspace.
STATFOR produces medium-term (seven years ahead) forecasts of annual numbers
of IFR flight movements for volumes of airspace called ‘traffic zones’. Traffic zones
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