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Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 23
Figure 21. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2010-2015: most of the
revisions happen between 2010 and 2012.
Of the 3 big economies, Germany recorded the biggest fall in GDP growth (-5%) in
2009, closely followed by UK (-4.4%), as shown in Figure 22. France recorded a
limited drop of -2.1% compared to the average value for the 33 reporting countries
(-4%). The three States are expected to recover in 2010, with the fastest rate of
recovery for Germany (+1.5%), compared to UK and France (respectively 1.1% and
1.2%). The growth will slowly accelerate in the following years to revert back close to
2007 levels from 2012 for UK (average annual growth typically around 3%-3.5%). The
recovery will be slower for France and Germany; they will both get back to prerecession
levels from 2013 and to weaker average annual growth rates (around 2%-
2.5%). Amongst the other European biggest economies, Spain and Ireland are not
expected to recover before 2011.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 24 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
Figure 22. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.
Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Feb10
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 14/02/2010
Actual Base
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Albania 6.1% 6.8% 2.7% 3.1% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Armenia 14% 6.8% ( 15%) 1.6% 3.3% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Austria 3.4% 2.1% -3.6% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%
Azerbaijan 25% 11% 9.2% 9.5% 11% 9.5% 7.5% 8.5% 8.5% 7.9%
Belarus 8.2% 11% 0.2% 2.7% 4.8% 5.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Belgium/Luxembourg 2.8% 0.8% -3.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 5.9% 5.4% -3.4% 0.3% 3.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Bulgaria 6.2% 6.1% -4.7% -0.6% 3.5% 5.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.0% 5.4%
Canary Islands 3.6% 0.9% -3.6% -0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2%
Croatia 5.5% 2.4% -5.7% 0.2% 3.2% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3%
Cyprus 4.4% 3.6% -0.5% 0.9% 1.9% 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Czech Republic 6.1% 2.3% -4.3% 0.8% 3.2% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 3.7%
Denmark 1.7% -0.9% -4.8% 0.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1%
Estonia 7.2% -3.6% ( 15%) -1.0% 3.6% 7.2% 6.7% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%
FYROM 5.9% 5.0% -1.3% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.3%
Finland 4.1% 1.1% -7.5% 1.1% 3.3% 5.5% 4.9% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7%
France 2.3% 0.3% -2.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8%
Georgia 12% 2.0% -3.8% 2.5% 4.8% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.1%
Germany 2.6% 1.0% -4.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8%
Greece 4.5% 2.0% -1.1% -0.6% -0.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1%
Hungary 1.3% -0.0% -6.4% -0.2% 3.7% 5.5% 6.7% 5.4% 4.7% 4.7%
Iceland 5.5% 0.3% -7.7% -3.5% 1.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%
Ireland 6.0% -3.0% -7.1% -0.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0%
Israel 5.2% 4.0% 0.3% 3.4% 4.3% 4.8% 4.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
Italy 1.5% -1.0% -4.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3%
Kazakhstan 8.2% 3.0% -0.4% 3.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 6.0%
Latvia 10% -4.6% ( 18%) -3.5% 2.2% 4.5% 6.8% 8.2% 6.6% 5.3%
Lisbon FIR 1.9% 0.0% -2.7% 1.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Lithuania 9.8% 2.8% ( 15%) -2.2% 3.8% 7.7% 8.9% 8.4% 7.5% 6.2%
Malta 3.7% 2.1% -2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Moldova 3.0% 7.2% -7.6% 0.9% 3.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
Netherlands 3.6% 2.0% -4.0% 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%
Norway 2.7% 1.7% -1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Poland 6.8% 5.0% 1.5% 2.6% 3.4% 4.8% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6%
Romania 6.2% 7.2% -7.1% 1.0% 4.9% 6.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.2%
Russian Federation 8.0% 5.8% -8.9% 4.3% 4.7% 6.7% 6.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0%
Santa Maria FIR 1.9% 0.0% -2.7% 1.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Serbia&Montenegro 6.9% 5.5% -4.0% 0.2% 4.3% 5.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Slovakia 11% 6.4% -4.7% 2.9% 4.4% 5.3% 5.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7%
Slovenia 6.8% 3.4% -6.9% 1.4% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Spain 3.6% 0.9% -3.6% -0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2%
Sweden 2.7% -0.4% -4.3% 1.7% 2.7% 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Switzerland 3.6% 1.8% -1.7% 0.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
Turkey 4.8% 1.1% -5.9% 4.8% 5.8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.2% 6.4% 5.8%
UK 2.6% 0.6% -4.8% 1.1% 2.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.4%
Ukraine 7.6% 2.3% ( 15%) 4.5% 4.0% 7.7% 8.5% 6.5% 5.3% 5.0%
Uzbekistan 9.5% 9.0% 7.8% 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 25
Figure 23. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone.
Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Feb10.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 14/02/2010
Actual Base
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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements(15)
