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high-growth scenarios, the times remain the same, but they happen earlier and
later, respectively. The distance indicated is based on an average location of airports
associated with the city, not on city-centre locations.
For the 2010 medium-term forecast, the travel times have been updated, and the
years when the projects come into operation have been reviewed. There are a
number of adjustments as a result. For several projects coming into service in at the
end of 2009 (eg the Paris-Rotterdam line, Paris-Schiphol line), the start date has
been set to 2010 since the influence of the new high-speed lines will be largely felt in
that year.
Figure 26. High-Speed Train Times in the Baseline Scenario.
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
Comments: HST projects to be finalised 2010-2016.
Units: Travel time (minutes). ). Data last updated: 14/02/2010. Distances estimated from airport locations.
Distance Rail Time (mins)
Km 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Florence B 96 60 35 . . . . . .
NAPOLI CAP B 472 260 240 . . . . . .
BOLOGNA
Rome B 312 165 140 . . . . . .
Lyon B 282 225 . . . 145 . . .
Marseille B 495 340 . . . 240 . . .
Nimes B 484 350 . . . 250 . . .
Bale Mulho
Paris B 413 210 . . 180 . . . .
Berlin Dresden (S B 152 140 . 125 . . . . .
Bilbao SAN SEBAST B 91 130 . . . . . 40 .
ROTTERDAM B 133 Brussels 105 71 . . . . . .
SCHIPHOL A B 174 146 97 . . . . . .
Copenhagen Hamburg B 279 270 . . . . . . .
Bale Mulho B 195 180 . . . 80 . . .
Frankfurt B 396 390 . . . 290 . . .
DIJON/DARO
Strasbourg B 242 220 . . . 130 . . .
Bern B 355 230 . . 200 . . . .
Bale Mulho B 282 170 . . 140 . . . .
Frankfurt
Paris B 460 230 . 215 . . . . .
GENEVE COI Paris B 418 202 . 185 . . . . .
Istanbul ANKARA/GUV B 339 420 . 180 . . . . .
Karlsruhe Bern B 239 180 . . 150 . . . .
Bale Mulho B 166 110 . . 80 . . . .
Koln/Bonn Bale Mulho B 361 230 . . 200 . . . .
LAUSANNE B Paris B 420 228 210 . . . . . .
LISBOA Madrid B 501 690 . . . . 165 . .
PORTO B 276 170 . . . . . . 75
Leipzig Dresden (S B 101 60 . 45 . . . . .
PRAHA RUZY B 204 215 200 . . . . . .
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 28 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
Distance Rail Time (mins)
Km 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ALICANTE B 355 360 . . 120 . . . .
Bilbao B 328 300 . . . . . 135 .
MURCIA SAN B 381 250 . 120 . . . . .
SAN SEBAST B 363 300 . . . . . 135 .
Valencia B 289 210 . 90 . . . . .
Madrid
Vitoria B 286 220 . . . . . 120 .
Magdeburg Dresden (S B 173 180 155 . . . . . .
Florence B 215 130 105 . . . . . .
NAPOLI CAP B 638 290 250 . . . . . .
Milan
Rome B 464 210 165 . . . . . .
PORTO Vigo B 110 480 . . . . 60 . .
Barcelona B 859 440 . . . 335 . . .
ROTTERDAM B 355 189 156 . . . . . .
Paris
SCHIPHOL A B 400 233 182 . . . . . .
Barcelona B 173 Perpignan 165 . . . 50 . . .
Madrid B 601 500 . . . 230 . . .
Rome NAPOLI CAP B 187 80 70 . . . . . .
Lyon B 373 280 . . . 200 . . .
Marseille B 599 380 . . . 270 . . .
Strasbourg
Paris B 394 140 . . . . . . 110
BOLOGNA B 298 145 125 . . . . . .
Florence B 290 210 165 . . . . . .
Milan B 155 80 60 . . . . . .
NAPOLI CAP B 709 330 285 . . . . . .
Torino
Rome B 523 290 250 . . . . . .
Bilbao B 238 210 . . . . . 75 .
SAN SEBAST B 310 240 . . . . . 65 .
VALLADOLID
Vitoria B 218 140 . . . . . 65 .
Vitoria Bilbao B 49 140 . . . . . 30 .
SAN SEBAST B 92 100 . . . . . 30 .
ZURICH Paris B 489 270 . . 240 . . . .
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 29
D.4 Airport Capacity
The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The final stage of this is that demand
in excess of the expected capacity cannot be accommodated and is lost. For this
medium-term forecast, information on capacity of 138 airports has been used, coming
from either Long-Term forecast assumptions (see Ref. 5) or from civil aviation
authorities and air navigation service providers when this data is available. These
capacities are treated as confidential and not reported in this document.
D.5 Load Factors
Figure 28 summarises the assumptions about the development of load factors.
Simple forecasts have been made using the recent trends in the annual data provided
by the Association of European Airlines (AEA).
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (eg regional or lowcost
carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. Whilst this is true, it is the
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