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growth, past patterns of supply, the growth of low-cost carriers and the influence of
high-speed trains. Three key features are:
· For the first time, this year the first two years of the forecast are fully aligned
with the short-term forecast, at both the level of zone-to-zone and overflight flows.
· Also for the first time, the routing between airport pairs is modelled both on the
patterns observed in the baseline year, and recent trends in how these patterns
are changing. However, no account of future route network changes is made (see
section 3.3).
· The medium-term forecast is constrained by annual airport capacities.
More detail of the method is given in Annex A.
Three ‘scenarios’ are used to capture the likely range of growth of flight movements.
They comprise: the low-growth and high-growth scenario which vary economic
growth, load factors and other variables in order to capture the most-likely range; and
the baseline forecast which is a guidance figure within this range. The scenarios are
detailed in Annex D.
Experience in recent years has shown the need to take the whole forecast range
(from low-growth to high-growth) into account. For this new forecast, the main areas
of risk are discussed in section 3.2.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 2 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
2. TRAFFIC IN 2009
The World economic downturn, the decline in traffic demand and increasing
fuel prices in 2009 contributed to a decline in traffic that was strong and widely
spread across Europe. Load factors have nevertheless been optimised during
the second half of 2009 as airlines managed to better match their capacities to
the demand. However, the falling price of travel coupled with increasing oil
prices put high pressure on airlines’ yields.
The economic recession that began to affect traffic in 2008, continued to affect air
traffic strongly in 2009. With fewer goods to ship and lower demand for air travel – in
particular the slowdown in corporate travel - aircraft operators had to cut capacity and
implement drastic cost-reduction plans to survive. Several airlines nevertheless
collapsed.
In 2009, the number of IFR flights in Europe (ESRA08) decreased by 6.6%, the
biggest annual fall on EUROCONTROL records, to 9.4 million. The traffic saw a more
severe decline during the first half of the year (-8.6%) than the second one (-4.8%),
though this change was largely due to the declining traffic in late 2008 rather than
returning growth in 2009.
All but a few States have recorded a decline in traffic. Amongst the busiest States, the
UK (-9.4%), Spain (-9.5%) and the Netherlands (-8.6%) showed the biggest drops
compared to 2008 (Figure 3). Turkey had a moderately strong growth (+4%), driven
by both domestic and international demand. The other States which grew, mainly in
the Balkans, mostly did so as a result of changing patterns of overflights.
The average daily traffic in Europe was around 25,800 flights a day. For most of the
year, the total number of flights in Europe has tracked the traffic levels experienced in
2006. But, with further capacity cuts from the start of the winter 09/10 timetable, the
last 2 months of 2009 had same volumes of traffic as 2005.
Traffic from the biggest extra-European partners (US and Russia) remained
depressed for the most of the year 2009 (compared to 2008). Both flows showed
some signs of improvement since October 2009. Some time after the introduction of
the Open Skies agreement, Morocco was the strongest of the main extra-European
markets (Figure 4).
The volume of traffic decreased in 2009 (compared to 2008) but the distribution of
market shares remained quite stable from one year to another (Figure 5), with just a
further 1 percentage point gain for low-cost.
All market segments shrank in 2009, with business aviation, all-cargo and charter
most severely hit (respectively -14%, -13.1% and -13.1%, compared to 2008). At the
very end of the year, low-cost and business aviation recovered, to a weak positive
growth with respectively around 4,500 and 1,500 flights a day in December 2009,
compared to 4,400 and 1,450 in December 2008 (Figure 6).
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 3
Figure 3. All but a few States in Europe saw a
decrease in traffic in 2009.
Units: Additional IFR movements/day compared to 2008, overflights
excluded.
Note: Shows only States with more than 100 local movements/day.
Figure 4. Changes in flows from and to major
extra-european destinations.
Figure 5. Main market segment distribution,
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