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Page iv Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD
The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present
document.
EDITION
NUMBER
EDITION
DATE
INFOCENTRE
REFERENCE REASON FOR CHANGE PAGES
AFFECTED
v0.1 18/01/10 Draft for STATFOR User Group Review All
v1.0 23/02/10 Final version All
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page v
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1
1.1 General.....................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Summary of Forecast Method...................................................................................................1
2. Traffic in 2009......................................................................................................2
3. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2016............................................................6
3.1 Summary of growth...................................................................................................................6
3.2 Risks to the Forecast ................................................................................................................9
3.3 Network and Routing Effects ..................................................................................................10
3.4 Airport constraints ...................................................................................................................11
3.5 High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................12
3.6 Comparison with earlier forecasts...........................................................................................14
4. GLOSSARY........................................................................................................16
Annex A. FORECAST METHOD...................................................................17
Annex B. EUROCONTROL STATISTICAL REFERENCE AREA.................20
Annex C. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS.................................................21
Annex D. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS...............................22
D.1 Economic Growth....................................................................................................................22
D.2 Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................25
D.3 High-Speed Train Network Development ...............................................................................27
D.4 Airport Capacity.......................................................................................................................29
D.5 Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................29
D.6 Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................30
Annex E. SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA...............................33
Annex F. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................36
F.1 Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2005-2016. ............................................36
F.2 Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2005-2016 .............................................................40
Annex G. REFERENCES...............................................................................44
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page vi Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
List of Figures.
Figure 1. Average annual growth 2010-2016 for each State....................................................i
Figure 2. Summary of the forecast for the ESRA08. ............................................................... ii
Figure 3. All but a few States in Europe saw a decrease in traffic in 2009. ............................ 3
Figure 4. Changes in flows from and to major extra-european destinations........................... 3
Figure 5. Main market segment distribution, 2008 and 2009. ................................................ 3
Figure 6. All market segments have contracted during most of 2009..................................... 3
Figure 7. Load factors in Europe have recovered to near record levels. (Source: AEA. AEA
member airlines, intra-Europe traffic) ............................................................................. 5
Figure 8. Ticket prices declined in September by the biggest monthly fall on record. (Source:
Eurostat) ........................................................................................................................ 5
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