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Figure 18. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.
The regions may be taken as referring to FIRs and UIRs or the airspace volumes of
ACCs and other control centres. In the medium-term forecast, traffic zones are
represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation
of airspace into account. The differences between charging areas and ACCs can
have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is
dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion
of overflights, so that the difference between an FIR and an ACC definition is small.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 21
ANNEX C. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS
For this forecast, traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of
traffic regions listed in Figure 19 (for example in Figure 33). Each region is made up
of a number of traffic zones. Traffic zones are indicated in the table for brevity by the
first letters of the ICAO location codes.
The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official
position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
The ESRA was defined in the previous section. For flow purposes, this is split into a
“North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region
stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an
Eastern region.
The ‘Other region’ includes the Baltic States and Oceanic. The Former CIS Region
includes Ukraine (a member of EUROCONTROL and part of ESRA08) and Armenia
and Azerbaijan (members of ECAC). In time these will join the ESRA.
In 2009, Ukraine (UK) has been moved from Traffic Region “Former CIS Region” to
“ESRA East” region (in bold in Figure 19).
More details are available in STATFOR Geographical Hierarchy document (Ref.10).
Figure 19. Regions used in flow statistics.
ICAO region/country
ESRA
ESRA1 ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS
ESRA2 ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT
ESRA3 ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK
World 1 North Atlantic BG, BI, C, EK, K, P (except KG)
World 2 Middle-East O, L
World 3 North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL, HS
World 4 Southern Africa D, F, G, H, MR (except DA, DT, HE, HL, HS, GM, GE, and ESRA)
World 5 Far-East R, V, Z (except ZZZZ)
World 6 Oceania KG, N, P, Y (except NO)
World 7 Mid-Atlantic M, T (except MR)
World 8 South-Atlantic S
World 9 Former CIS Region U (except areas in ESRA)
Other Other
EE, EN, EV, EY, GE, GM, LP, LX, Swanwick Oc., Bodo Oc.,
Santa Maria FIR
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 22 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
ANNEX D. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
D.1 Economic Growth
Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) come from a single coherent
source, Oxford Economics Ltd (OE). Data in this draft originate from the February
2010 update of the GDP forecast. These are shown for specific States5 in Figure 22
and Figure 23. For all other States, the growth of the traffic region is used. Traffic
regions are listed in Figure 19, and their economic growth in Figure 24.
The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets6 from these forecasts.
In the MTF09 update (MTF09b, see Ref. 1), GDP data were based on OE September
2009 update in which most of the States had seen their growth revised downwards
due to the economic crisis. Figure 21 illustrates how little the economic outlook has
changed for EU27 since September update.
Figure 20. Since the last September forecast, the economic outlook for EU27
has not significantly changed (original data: Oxford Economics Ltd.).
When inspecting the data into more detail, most of the GDP forecasts per States are
unchanged for 2010-2015 overall, although there are some revisions in the first two
years. Figure 21 shows the differences in GDP data per State considered in MTF09b
and in this update. The biggest downward revisions are observed for Greece which is
expected to continue to contract in 2010 and 2011.
5 In fact the forecasts refer to ‘traffic zones’. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However, Belgium &
Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2.
6 +1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and big
States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
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