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While downside risks continue to dominate, at this stage in the cycle, upside risks also begin
to grow.
The EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast will next be reviewed in September 2010. The
short-term outlook will be additionally reviewed through the short-term forecast in May and
December of 2010.
2 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area in the extended 2008 definition used for the first time in the MTF09 (Annex B).
Addendum to Medium-Term Forecast February 2010
16/03/2010 Page 1 of 4
Addendum
When preparing the Medium-Term Forecast (Ref. 1), we observed that the flight forecast for
Croatia and Armenia looked anomalously low compared to that of their neighbours in the shortterm
view. This appeared to be linked to the very recent, hectic swings in growth. With the data
then available, we published the best forecast within the constraints of our modelling.
We have revisited the forecasts for these two States with the latest data available (February).
Having an additional month of growth makes the overall trend clearer in the modelling process.
The outlook for Armenia and Croatia changed and resulted in much more consistent forecast.
As a consequence, we have decided to amend the medium-term forecast for these two States,
leaving the others unchanged (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Forecast for 2010 in Armenia and Croatia has been revised upwards.
Figure 2 presents the updated forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
movements for 2010 to 2016 for Armenia and Croatia. These tables replace the forecast for
Armenia and Croatia issued in February 2010 (Ref. 1, Annex F).
Addendum to Medium-Term Forecast February 2010
16/03/2010 Page 2 of 4
Figure 2. Summary of the forecast for the Armenia and Croatia.
Armenia
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . 52 55 61 66 72 78 85 8.3%
B 42 43 48 52 48 51 53 58 62 67 72 77 6.9%
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)
L . . . . . 49 50 54 58 62 66 70 5.4%
H . . . . . 8.5% 5.6% 10% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.1% 8.3%
B . 2.6% 11% 8.0% -6.7% 5.5% 4.6% 8.7% 7.5% 7.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9%
Annual Growth
(compared to previous
years)
L . . . . . 1.0% 2.6% 7.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 5.4%
Croatia
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . 449 466 502 532 562 593 623 5.7%
B 331 339 398 422 422 435 448 473 496 519 542 563 4.2%
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)
L . . . . . 419 424 442 458 475 491 506 2.6%
H . . . . 6.4% 3.8% 7.7% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.7%
B 2.4% 17% 6.0% 0.1% 3.1% 2.9% 5.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2%
Annual Growth
(compared to previous
years)
L . . . . -0.8% 1.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.6%
Figure 3 and Figure 4 present the detailed traffic on the main flow categories for Armenia and
Croatia. Forecast of overflight traffic has been revisited only as it stands for the major flow in
each of the two States. Consequently, forecast for overflight and total flows only differ from the
February publication (detailed forecast to be found in Ref. 2).
The forecast in other respects remains unchanged. These revised data will be made available
shortly through the STATFOR interactive dashboard (Ref. 3).
Addendum to Medium-Term Forecast February 2010
16/03/2010 Page 3 of 4
Figure 3. Main Flow Categories for Armenia.
IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . . . . . . 76% 52% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 16.1%
B . -6.3% ( 84%) ( 67%) 75% ( 41%) -0.0% 5.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.8% -4.4%
Total: Internal
L . . . . . . . . . . ( 47%) 0.0% 5.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.5% -6.0%
H . . . . . 21 22 25 27 29 31 34 . . . . . 11% 6.4% 10% 8.6% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.7%
B 15 15 17 18 19 20 22 23 25 27 29 31 . 1.0% 13% 7.2% 2.9% 7.4% 5.5% 8.7% 7.7% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.3%
Total: Arr/Dep
L . . . . . 19 20 22 23 25 26 28 . . . . . 1.5% 3.5% 8.1% 7.1% 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 5.7%
H . . . . . 31 33 36 40 43 47 51 . . . . . 7.0% 5.1% 10% 8.6% 8.7% 8.5% 8.1% 8.0%
B 27 28 31 33 29 31 32 35 37 40 43 46 . 3.6% 10% 8.5% ( 12%) 4.3% 3.9% 8.7% 7.4% 7.8% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6%
Total: Overflight
L . . . . . 30 30 33 35 37 39 42 . . . . . 0.6% 2.1% 7.8% 6.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.3% 5.2%
H . . . . . 52 55 61 66 72 78 85 . . . . . 8.5% 5.6% 10% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.1% 8.3%
B 42 43 48 52 48 51 53 58 62 67 72 77 . 2.6% 11% 8.0% -6.7% 5.5% 4.6% 8.7% 7.5% 7.6% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9%
Grand Total
L . . . . . 49 50 54 58 62 66 70 . . . . . 1.0% 2.6% 7.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 5.4%
Figure 4. Main Flow Categories for Croatia.
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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements(2)
