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growth to reflect new flight movements generated by low-cost airlines; (Annex
D.2)
· High-speed train network, summarised as changes in rail travel time on city pairs
served by high-speed links, compared to the baseline year; (Annex D.3)
· Airport capacity, in movements per year for major airports; (Annex D.4)
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 19
· Load factors, which are assumed to change linearly from a current level to a
future level that can vary with region and scenario; (Annex D.5)
· Network change, a percentage adjustment to arrival and departure movements
per traffic zone, which can be used - given supporting data - to represent in the
model the effects of consolidation, irregularities in the baseline, or local one-off
effects; (Annex D.6)
· Demographic change, which has a very small impact in the demand-side model.
These data are derived from UN population forecasts.
The medium-term forecast is prepared in two stages: first the airport-pair forecast;
then the traffic per volume of airspace, calculated from this using estimates of routing
from airport to airport. Published tables, reports, graphs and maps are derived from
the second of these, for short- and medium-term forecast alike.
Each airport pair is grown as follows:
· All-cargo flights are grown based on GDP growth.
· Small airport pairs (< 25 flights per year) are kept constant.
· Growth of military flight movements in the first year of the forecast follows the
average of the last three years for the traffic zone as a whole, with a maximum
change of 5%, and is kept constant afterwards.
· Business aviation flights are grown based on observed trend at a State level
together with economic growth if this is a useful explanatory variable for this State.
· For other traffic, the use of supply-side or demand-side approach is considered.
Supply-side is used if traffic matches one of the standard histories (circular flights,
long-term stable or declining traffic, direct relationship to GDP) and if demand
exceeds the supply. Otherwise, it is demand that drives and limits the growth.
· In the demand-side, passenger numbers are estimate from flight counts, aircraft
type and load factors, then grown according to GDP growth and the elasticity for
this region-pair, then converted back to a number of flights using a number of
seats-to-flights relationships calibrated on historical data.
· The first years of the forecast are aligned with the short-term forecast (see Ref. 4
for an account of the short-term forecast method).
· The growth of movements on an airport-pair may then be reduced if there has
been a reduction in journey times by HST since the baseline year, adjusted for
low-cost growth in the traffic zone and for any network change assumptions (by
traffic zone, airport, or airport pair) and capped by airport capacity.
The resulting growth per airport pair is the ‘airport-pair’ forecast. The final step is to
calculate how many flights are generated in each airspace by these airport-to-airport
flights. This is done using a combination of the routings through airspace observed in
the baseline year and trends in overflight growth per traffic zone.
At each stage, the results are validated using any available data, such as from the
STATFOR User Group or from the Industry Monitor. For example: base-year airport
movements are compared with statistics published by airports; first-year growth is
compared with known airline plans; long-term growth is compared with other
forecasts in terms of flights or passengers. Such comparisons are typically a matter of
judgement, rather than a precise numerical correlation
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
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ANNEX B. EUROCONTROL STATISTICAL REFERENCE AREA
The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as
much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of
sources within the Agency (CRCO, CFMU and STATFOR) sources. It is used for
high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA
changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full
year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ‘ESRA08’ was
introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now used as a basis for comparison at European
level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions
outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia and Latvia) though still within ECAC.
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