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ANNEX E. SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA10
Figure 31. Growth in the ESRA.
Source: AP2 Forecast dated: 18Feb10.
10 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area in the new 2008 composition was used for the first time in the MTF09 (Annex B).
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 34 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
Figure 32. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA.
IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . 7,788 8,042 8,415 8,711 9,035 9,371 9,701 . . . . . 2.4% 3.3% 4.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
B 7,640 7,903 8,241 8,182 7,602 7,600 7,803 8,059 8,276 8,516 8,745 8,967 . 3.4% 4.3% -0.7% -7.1% -0.0% 2.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4%
Total: Internal
L . . . . . 7,395 7,482 7,643 7,776 7,931 8,083 8,228 . . . . . -2.7% 1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1%
H . . . . . 1,818 1,911 2,041 2,161 2,282 2,409 2,542 . . . . . 6.3% 5.1% 6.8% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5% 5.6% 5.8%
B 1,519 1,590 1,721 1,807 1,711 1,774 1,860 1,959 2,050 2,145 2,236 2,329 . 4.7% 8.2% 5.0% -5.3% 3.7% 4.8% 5.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5%
Total: Arr/Dep
L . . . . . 1,721 1,779 1,853 1,920 1,991 2,059 2,128 . . . . . 0.6% 3.4% 4.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%
H . . . . . 116 127 135 143 152 160 170 . . . . . 16% 9.4% 6.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 7.8%
B 59 67 81 94 100 113 122 129 136 143 149 157 . 14% 20% 16% 7.1% 12% 8.6% 5.7% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 6.6%
Total: Overflight
L . . . . . 108 117 123 129 134 140 146 . . . . . 7.9% 8.1% 5.2% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 5.5%
H . . . . . 9,722 10,080 10,592 11,015 11,469 11,940 12,413 . . . . . 3.3% 3.7% 5.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,487 9,785 10,146 10,461 10,803 11,131 11,453 . 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
Grand Total
L . . . . . 9,224 9,379 9,619 9,825 10,056 10,282 10,502 . . . . . -2.0% 1.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6%
Source: AP2 Forecast dated: 18Feb10.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 35
Figure 33. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA.
IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . 3715.1 3813.7 3942.2 4030.9 4130.8 4236.8 4346.5 . . . . . 1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
B 3878.2 3934.1 3995.6 3973.1 3665.3 3630.9 3711.6 3802.6 3864.5 3935.3 4007.3 4077.5 . 1.4% 1.6% -0.6% -7.7% -0.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5%
1 ESRA North-W ESRA North-W
L . . . . . 3543.3 3580.9 3640.8 3676.3 3719.1 3762.7 3804.4 . . . . . -3.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5%
H . . . . . 1594.5 1651.7 1725.7 1786.1 1847.9 1910.7 1972.3 . . . . . 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5%
B 1569.7 1606.0 1709.5 1684.3 1548.8 1549.5 1598.1 1648.5 1691.6 1738.0 1780.9 1821.7 . 2.3% 6.4% -1.5% -8.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3%
2 ESRA Mediter ESRA North-W
L . . . . . 1499.3 1520.1 1550.6 1577.4 1607.6 1635.8 1661.5 . . . . . -3.2% 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0%
H . . . . . 1492.3 1536.8 1620.2 1696.0 1777.9 1861.8 1931.8 . . . . . 3.3% 3.0% 5.4% 4.7% 4.8% 4.7% 3.8% 4.2%
B 1375.1 1471.4 1573.3 1518.2 1445.0 1465.5 1495.9 1547.2 1607.0 1670.8 1726.6 1778.4 . 7.0% 6.9% -3.5% -4.8% 1.4% 2.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0%
3 ESRA Mediter ESRA Mediter
L . . . . . 1433.6 1433.9 1461.6 1496.0 1536.8 1578.5 1616.8 . . . . . -0.8% 0.0% 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 1.6%
H . . . . . 535.8 560.9 602.5 633.3 669.5 707.0 747.0 . . . . . 4.3% 4.7% 7.4% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.5%
B 456.7 495.5 528.6 560.0 513.5 517.7 539.0 568.8 591.3 617.2 643.0 669.6 . 8.5% 6.7% 5.9% -8.3% 0.8% 4.1% 5.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9%
4 ESRA East ESRA North-W
L . . . . . 497.2 511.7 531.7 547.1 564.3 580.7 597.2 . . . . . -3.2% 2.9% 3.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2%
H . . . . . 318.7 330.3 342.6 354.1 366.7 380.0 395.1 . . . . . 3.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 4.0% 3.6%
B 312.3 321.2 339.6 341.4 309.1 312.7 324.3 333.3 340.8 349.0 357.2 366.1 . 2.8% 5.7% 0.5% -9.5% 1.2% 3.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
5 ESRA North-W North Atlant
L . . . . . 305.2 313.1 320.0 325.1 330.1 334.9 340.2 . . . . . -1.3% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
H . . . . . 245.8 260.4 282.8 301.8 323.0 345.4 370.0 . . . . . 3.4% 5.9% 8.6% 6.7% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 6.5%
B 214.1 227.4 240.2 248.5 237.8 238.8 249.7 265.8 279.5 294.5 309.7 325.7 . 6.2% 5.6% 3.5% -4.3% 0.4% 4.5% 6.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.1% 5.2% 4.6%
6 ESRA East ESRA East
L . . . . . 231.4 238.6 249.4 258.8 268.8 278.5 288.5 . . . . . -2.7% 3.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 2.8%
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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements(20)
