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Figure 9. Oil prices remain high, if partly softened by the strong euro. (Source: Eurostat) ..... 5
Figure 10. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ................................................... 6
Figure 11. Forecast for 2010 in Europe is for a weak growth. ................................................ 7
Figure 12. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2016 v 2009)............... 8
Figure 13. Impact of airport constraints. ...............................................................................11
Figure 14. Effect of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for the ESRA08 (top) and
the most affected States (bottom)..................................................................................12
Figure 15. Improved high-Speed Train City-Pairs (Baseline Scenario). ................................13
Figure 16. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF09b dashed lines,
MTF10 solid lines). ........................................................................................................15
Figure 17. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast. ............................................18
Figure 18. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area................................................20
Figure 19. Regions used in flow statistics. ............................................................................21
Figure 20. Since the last September forecast, the economic outlook for EU27 has not
significantly changed (original data: Oxford Economics Ltd.).........................................22
Figure 21. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2010-2015: most of the revisions
happen between 2010 and 2012. ..................................................................................23
Figure 22. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone. ..............................................................................24
Figure 23. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone. ............................................................25
Figure 24. GDP Growth by Traffic Region. ...........................................................................25
Figure 25. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone. .........................................................................26
Figure 26. High-Speed Train Times in the Baseline Scenario...............................................27
Figure 27. Example of forecast for load factors – here for Europe. (Original data AEA.
STATFOR analysis). .....................................................................................................29
Figure 28. Load factors by Traffic Region. ............................................................................30
Figure 29. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone. ................................................31
Figure 30. Airport traffic switch. ............................................................................................32
Figure 31. Growth in the ESRA. ...........................................................................................33
Figure 32. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA.................................................34
Figure 33. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA. .......35
Figure 34. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2010-2016 average annual growth..................36
Figure 35. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2010-2016 average annual growth.......40
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 1
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
movements for 2010 to 2016, prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and
Forecast Service (STATFOR) in February 2010. This replaces the forecast issued in
September 2009 (Ref. 1).
This is volume 1 which contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, including
forecast method (Annex A), geographical definitions (Annex B, Annex C), forecast
assumptions (Annex D), forecast details for Europe as a whole (Annex E) and annual
total forecasts per State (Annex F). The detail for each traffic zone (usually the same
as ‘State’) is provided in volume 2 (Ref. 2).
STATFOR also prepares a long-term forecast (20 years) available in summary on the
STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).
1.2 Summary of Forecast Method
The EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast grows airport-pair traffic using a model
of economic and industry developments. It then calculates overflights based on the
routing observed in the baseline year, adjusted by recent trends in overflights.
The medium-term forecast is developed by growing baseline traffic (all IFR flight
movements for the whole of 2009) taking into account factors such as economic
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