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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China 13% 9.7% 8.5% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 8.3%
India 9.4% 7.5% 6.7% 7.3% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 8.4% 7.7% 7.4%
Figure 24. GDP Growth by Traffic Region.
Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Feb10.
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 14/02/2010
Actual Base
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ESRA East 6.1% 4.2% -2.6% 1.5% 3.7% 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
ESRA Mediterranean 2.8% 0.1% -4.3% 1.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8%
ESRA North-West 2.7% 0.7% -4.0% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2%
Far-East 3.5% 0.1% -3.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6%
Former CIS Region 8.6% 5.8% -7.3% 4.6% 5.2% 6.9% 6.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%
Mid-Atlantic 3.6% 1.7% -5.1% 3.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5%
Middle-East 6.0% 5.5% 1.0% 4.6% 6.0% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%
North Atlantic 2.2% 0.4% -2.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8%
North-Africa 5.5% 5.7% 3.4% 4.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9%
Oceania 4.6% 1.9% 0.7% 2.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%
Other 9.3% -1.0% ( 16%) -2.3% 3.3% 6.6% 7.8% 7.6% 6.7% 6.2%
South-Atlantic 7.7% 5.7% -0.3% 2.9% 4.6% 5.2% 4.2% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3%
Southern Africa 6.5% 5.9% 3.3% 5.0% 6.0% 6.5% 5.8% 5.5% 5.0% 5.1%
D.2 Low-Cost Carrier Growth
The low-cost carrier growth model is unchanged from the previous forecast. The
starting point is the market share of low-cost carriers in each traffic zone in December
2009. This is augmented by a rate of growth of the market share derived from a base
growth for the whole ESRA of 2.3 percentage points per year (1 and 3.5 p.p. in the
low- and high-growth scenarios respectively) and adjusted7 for observed higher Stateto-
State variation. The low-cost carriers are defined by means of a list (Ref.11), more
detailed data on this segment are available in STATFOR web page (Ref. 3).
The evidence is that low-cost carrier market share growth is partly new, generated
traffic (for example attracted by the price), and partly replacement or re-badging of
existing traffic. Figure 25 shows the market share of low-cost carriers in 2009 and
2016 (actual for 2009, assumptions for 2016), and the percentage additional growth in
movements generated by the low-cost carriers by 2016.
7 Assumption of the UK low-cost growth for 2016 has been revised upwards as UK low-cost carriers appear to be more
continuing to increase their market share beyond the expected level.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 26 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
Figure 25. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone.
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 18/01/2010
Actual Low Base High
2009 2016 2016 2016
Albania 0% 1% 3% 4%
Armenia 0% 1% 3% 4%
Austria 21% 25% 30% 34%
Azerbaijan 0% 1% 3% 4%
Belarus 0% 1% 3% 4%
Belgium/Luxembourg 38% 37% 41% 44%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3% 7% 13% 18%
Bulgaria 13% 21% 32% 42%
Canary Islands 27% 31% 36% 42%
Croatia 6% 10% 15% 20%
Cyprus 11% 18% 27% 36%
Czech Republic 14% 21% 30% 39%
Denmark 13% 16% 20% 23%
Estonia 4% 8% 12% 16%
FYROM 1% 3% 5% 6%
Finland 18% 21% 25% 28%
France 14% 18% 23% 28%
Georgia 0% 2% 5% 6%
Germany 27% 30% 33% 37%
Greece 4% 8% 14% 18%
Hungary 17% 21% 25% 29%
Iceland 0% 4% 8% 12%
Ireland 52% 55% 65% 75%
Italy 29% 32% 37% 42%
Latvia 13% 17% 21% 25%
Lisbon FIR 23% 27% 32% 36%
Lithuania 14% 21% 30% 39%
Malta 22% 30% 41% 51%
Moldova 0% 1% 2% 3%
Netherlands 14% 16% 19% 21%
Norway 21% 25% 30% 34%
Poland 29% 34% 41% 47%
Romania 27% 34% 43% 52%
Santa Maria FIR 0% 2% 5% 6%
Serbia&Montenegro 5% 9% 14% 19%
Slovakia 34% 41% 50% 59%
Slovenia 2% 6% 10% 14%
Spain 35% 35% 40% 45%
Sweden 18% 21% 25% 28%
Switzerland 18% 21% 25% 28%
Turkey 15% 19% 24% 29%
UK 41% 43% 45% 48%
Ukraine 0% 1% 3% 4%
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 27
D.3 High-Speed Train Network Development
The information some improvement in the high-speed rail network between 2009 and
2016 on is based on information provided by the Union Internationale des Chemins
de Fer and websites of a number of specific HST projects. The model converts
improved rail travel times into increased market share for rail, and thus fewer
passengers travelling by air.
Figure 26 indicates the changes in rail travel time in the baseline scenario. In the lowand
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