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2008 and 2009.
Figure 6. All market segments have
contracted during most of 2009.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 4
During the first half of 2009, load factors were weaker than in 2008 as passenger
demand was falling faster than airline capacity adjustments (Figure 7). Since July
2009, the load factors have recovered (compared to 2008), being even higher than
2007 levels during a few weeks in summer and again in September. Airlines
managed to take the necessary measures (capacity cuts) to fill their aircraft. The
suspension of the “use-it-or-lose-it” rule for keeping rights to airport slots during the
summer also freed airlines to trim further. These optimised load factors have not been
reflected in airlines’ yields which remain very weak, notably because of the lack of
business passengers overall and the migration of business travellers to cheaper seats
and airlines. A number of airlines are now adapting the structure of their class offering
to adapt to what is seen by many as more than a temporary downward blip.
The cost of air travel (Source: Eurostat) in the EU decreased from July 2009, finally
catching up with airlines’ reported falling yields. Indeed, airlines adapted their fares to
cope with falling demand in premium tickets. Ticket prices by September were
decreasing 7% year-on-year, the biggest monthly fall on records (Figure 8).
Oil prices remained low during the year compared to the 2008 peaks. Oil prices
started at around $40 per barrel (/b) in January and increased to $80/b by the
summer. They remained quite stable during the second half of the year (Figure 9).
The strength of the euro has helped, but these continuing high prices have added to
the difficulty of low yields.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 5
Figure 7. Load factors in Europe have recovered to near record levels. (Source: AEA. AEA member
airlines, intra-Europe traffic)
Figure 8. Ticket prices declined in September by the biggest monthly fall on record. (Source:
Eurostat)
Figure 9. Oil prices remain high, if partly softened by the strong euro. (Source: Eurostat)
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 6
3. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2016
3.1 Summary of growth
The forecast is for 11.5 million IFR movements in the ESRA in 2016, 22%
(approx ±8% in the low- and high-growth scenarios) more than in 2009. The
traffic growth will be weak in 2010 (below 1%) but will increasingly recover in
2011 and 2012 to growth rates greater than 3%. In the later years, annual growth
will be 2.9-3.3%, which is still below the long-term historical average. The
average growth rate over the 7 years is for 2.8% per year.
Figure 10 summarises the forecast results for Europe (ESRA08 – see Annex B). The
forecast is for 11.5 million IFR movements in 2016, 22% more than in 2009. The highgrowth
scenario adds a further 1 million movements (+8%) while the low-growth
scenario deducts less than 1 million movements (-8%).
Figure 10. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08).
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AAGR
2016/
2009
H . . . . . 9,722 10,080 10,592 11,015 11,469 11,940 12,413 4.0%
B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,487 9,785 10,146 10,461 10,803 11,131 11,453 2.8%
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)
L . . . . . 9,224 9,379 9,619 9,825 10,056 10,282 10,502 1.6%
H . . . . . 3.3% 3.7% 5.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
B . 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
Annual Growth
(compared to previous
years)
L . . . . . -2.0% 1.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6%
Short-Term outlook
The short-term forecast of February 2009 (see Ref. 4) highlighted the risk that,
although the forecast suggested a recovery in the last quarter of 2009, this might well
be delayed by 3-6 months. This turned out to be the case, and the slowness of the
recovery dragged down the forecast for Europe in 2010 to 0.8%. This is well below
the pre-recession typical trends of around 3.5%-4.5% annual rates of growth.
Although most of the Eastern European States show growth rates greater than the
European average (Figure 11), some of the busiest States still lag behind (e.g.
France, UK) as their schedule forecast has been revised downwards for summer. The
recovery will then strengthen in 2011.
The range between high- and low-growth scenarios is over 5 percentage points, that
is the growth in traffic will most likely be between -2% and 3.3%. There remain some
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