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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 11
3.4 Airport constraints
Due to the lower levels of traffic (2005 levels), the effect of airport constraints is
low in this forecast compared to pre-recession levels. Demand will exceed
capacity by 119,000 IFR departures in 2016, which is around 1%.
This forecast uses an extended set of airport capacity figures, building on the work
done for the Long-Term Forecast 2008 (Ref. 5) and Challenges of Growth 2008
(Ref. 6). In total, 138 major airports are included in the capacity checks. Also, these
assumptions have been enhanced by capacity figures provided by STATFOR User
Group members directly, when available. The set of airports covered by declared
capacities accounts for around 70% of the traffic in Europe.
In the baseline scenario in 2016, demand for around 119,000 departures will not be
accommodated due to airport congestion (mainly in UK, Turkey, France and Italy).
This will reduce the growth in departures by 1% percentage point over the 7 years of
the forecast.
Compared to last year, the forecast traffic growth is even weaker. As a result, the
number of unaccommodated flights is lower than in the previous Medium-Term
Forecast (excess demand of 74,000 in 2015 in MTF10 compared to 100,000 in the
same year in MTF09b, see Ref. 2).
Figure 13. Impact of airport constraints.
Units: Reduction in IFR departures when airport constraints are taken into account.
Change in IFR Movements (000s) Percentage Change
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High 9.4 13.6 28.9 55.1 102.1 146.6 217.5 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7%
Base 8.1 8.8 13.7 24.9 45.4 73.6 119.0 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
Low 7.1 7.5 3.6 8.1 18.1 23.8 41.2 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Page 12 Released Issue Edition Number: v1.0
3.5 High-Speed Train
The continuing development of the high-speed train network reduces growth in
air traffic by about 61,000 IFR movements (0.5%) in total over 7 years. Lisbon
FIR, Spain and Italy see the largest reductions.
Figure 14 summarises the number of IFR departures that are lost to rail because of
improvements in the high-speed train (HST) network. The effect is around 0.5% in
total over the 7 years of the forecast; small on the scale of the network as a whole,
even if on particular city-pairs the effect can be large. This result is similar to the
MTF09 (see Ref. 7).
Figure 14. Effect of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for the
ESRA08 (top) and the most affected States (bottom).
Change in IFR Movements (000s) Percentage Change
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High 3.9 15.9 24.0 37.6 45.0 52.4 66.1 . 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Base 4.0 18.9 31.1 36.9 43.0 51.3 61.1 . 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Low 4.1 19.1 30.4 39.1 47.1 51.3 55.1 . 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Change in IFR Movements (000s) Percentage Change
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Belgium/Luxe 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
France 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.0 3.8 3.6 4.4 . 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Germany . 0.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 . . 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Italy 3.0 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Lisbon FIR . . . . 2.1 4.3 7.6 . . . . 1.4% 2.9% 5.0%
Netherlands 0.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Spain . 4.5 14.3 18.5 21.7 27.7 33.3 . 0.6% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.2% 3.7%
Base
Switzerland . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 . . 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Spain sees the largest impact of HST: a reduction of 33,300 IFR departures in 2016
(3.7%). Italy has around 12,100 fewer IFR departures, which is a 1.3% reduction, and
Lisbon FIR loses about 7,600 departures to HST (5%). The effects in Spain are
mainly because of the Madrid-Valencia and Madrid-Alicante connections. They will
start operations in 2011 and 2012 respectively and the effects are likely to remove
around 30% of the traffic on both links. Similarly in Italy, it is the improved segments
of the line between Milan and Rome, in operation since the end of 2008 but having
effect mostly since 2009. In Lisbon FIR, there are the plans for a new high-speed rail
between Lisbon and Madrid to be operational in 2014. Figure 15 shows the changes
in the network compared to the baseline in 2009.
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016
Edition Number: v1.0 Released Issue Page 13
Figure 15. Improved high-Speed Train City-Pairs (Baseline Scenario).
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
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