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hiring, the word trickles down and young people deciding on careers or looking for a change of direction opt to take up flying. Some of them stop at the private pilot stage, but many go on to become commercial pilots and ATPLs. Airlines benefit by not carrying basic training as
an overhead, and General Aviation profits, too. Flight schools benefit, aircraft manu¬facturers and brokers benefit, the industry in general has a spring in its step."
36 EUR0C0NTR0L / EBAA / IA0PA 2009
"But," he continues, "the airline industry can get from boom to bust faster than any business I know. Until a few months ago, the talk was all of pilot shortages, exponential expansion, more aircraft orders. The speed with which the industry went into reverse was startling. Pilots graduating as ATPLs today will generally have started their training two to five years ago, and they're emerging into an employment desert. Confidence has disappeared and new students
are almost impossible to find. Training aircraft are underused, the inventory of used aircraft for sale is rising, prices are falling — and nobody knows when the situation will stabilise."
Cessna is the biggest player in the GA industry. In 0ctober it was sitting on a backlog of orders, worth $16 billion, for aircraft as diverse as the Citation Jet range and the Cessna 172 trainer/tourer. Keep¬ing those customers committed is now a full-time preoccupation. Despite the lines of credit available to some customers through its parent company Textron — which also owns Bell Helicopters — Cessna is uncertain how many of its customers can get access to the finance they need.
Cessna President and CE0 Jack Pelton says: "This recession looks different,
and it's uncharted territory. Past cycles were based on economic fundamentals that were very similar, but this time the financial crisis is hitting people's ability to borrow and to keep companies running."
Pelton continues: "In 2001, when the dotcom bubble burst, the credit was available but the demand wasn't there. Lack of availability of finance for aircraft is "Training aircraft
are underused, the
inventory of used
aircraft for sale is
rising and prices
are falling"
the new factor, and we're not sure where that's going. Cessna is in a better financial position than almost anyone else in the industry, but we're going to have to dig ourselves out of this."
In the wake of 9/11, business aviation boomed as companies, concerned for the security of their executives, looked at alternatives to airline travel. Hikes
in fuel prices and insurance costs have hampered the sector, but in general
it has performed well. There has also been significant growth in the self-fly businessman's sector, with strong sales of high-performance piston-engine singles, such as the Cirrus SR22 and the Diamond DA40.
However, other types of GA have not prospered as much as was hoped. Many flight schools are operating 25-year-old aircraft. The light regulatory touch on microlight aircraft in Europe was expected to trigger major growth, but it hasn't happened. Even in Italy, where you don't need a licence to fl y a microlight below 450kg — it is in the same sporting clas¬sification as a tennis racquet — sales have not been spectacular. A big part of the reason, says Robinson, is that such aircraft can only be used for sport. "Leisure is a small part of general aviation," he says. "You need a well-equipped aircraft and a well-qualified pilot to be sure to get where you want to go, and both call for significant investment."
So, what of the future? "All bets are off," says Robinson. "The solution is out of general aviation's hands. All we can do is put the wagons in a circle and tough it out."
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EUROCONTROL EBAA IAOPA Yearbook 2009: The Business of Flying(13)
