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study to reduce the
number of flights
(2.3 million) expected to
exceed demand in 2030.
The previous articles focused on the
future demand for air transport in 2030 in
Europe and on the main challenges associated
with responding to that demand. A
particular feature of these challenges is
that depending on the long-term forecast
scenario, demand in 2030 is forecast to
be between 1.7 and 2.9 times the 2007
traffic level.
In the most likely scenario, which has
moderate economic growth but growing
environmental challenges, 11% of
demand will not be accommodated ?i.e.
2.3 million flights per year would not take
place.
In the most challenging scenario, which
comprises strong economic growth but
with an increased use of technology to
partially mitigate the environmental challenges,
25% of demand will be unaccommodated,
i.e. 7.2 million flights per year.
From 2025 to 2030, unaccommodated
demand will almost double and congestion
will accelerate rapidly. Even if the
predicted situation is less alarming than
that outlined in Challenges to Growth
2004, the network as a whole will
become subject to regular delays unless
mitigating action is taken.
Mitigation analysis ?why?
The mitigation analysis contained in
the 2008 Challenges of Growth studies
methods which users and providers of
the air traffic network might apply in order
to alleviate the challenges facing airport
capacity and the network.
A number of different options for mitigating
airport capacity constraints were
assessed in previous Challenges to
Growth studies and these options were
considered as a starting point for our
analysis. The major challenge of the
current study is to propose and assess
methods representing a much closer
alignment with the real possibilities for
action which users and providers will
have in the future.
In order to address this challenge, the
2008 Mitigation Analysis involved a representative
panel of experts and managers
of the airline and airport community ?
three from the major airlines sector, two
representing low-cost airlines, one from
the business aviation industry and three
from airport operators (a total of nine) ?
which allowed the modelling methodology
to be adapted in order to take into
account the distinctive characteristics of
the various operators.
In the most likely
scenario, 11% of
demand will not be
accommodated ?
i.e. 2.3 million flights
per year would
not take place.
Mitigating
the challenges ahead
14
Focus
Six methods
Six methods were considered in the analysis.
Four of these, namely alternative aiports,
schedule smoothing, high-speed train investment
and the use of larger aircraft, were
specifically addressed by the expert panel.
A further two, SESAR improvements considered
in isolation as well as coupled with
the increased use of alternative airports were
analysed as options for reducing the
unaccommodated demand.
Alternative airports
This mitigation method involves moving
excess traffic either to a secondary airport
(within 45 nm of a hub) or to a regional
airport (at a greater distance from the hub)
depending on the type of flight.
Charter and cargo flights are moved to
regional airports, while some low-cost
flights and some business aviation flights
are transferred to secondary airports. The
knock-on effects of this in terms of increasing
complexity of traffic flows en route were not
modelled.
Within this scenario, it was also considered
that increased use would be made of existing
military airports.
The method is efficient, since it would reduce
unaccommodated demand by 25-40%, being
more effective in the most likely scenario. The
impact of the method is limited by capacity
constraints elsewhere in the network and
the willingness of passengers and carriers to
relocate. In addition, there may be adverse
environmental impacts if ground transport is
needed for access to remote airports.
SESAR improvements
Discussions with airlines and airports
have highlighted the importance of the
SESAR programme, which will see the development
and implementation of new technology,
approaches and procedures.
The method assumed that with sufficient
investment, each airport can, if
required, be brought to 慴est-in-class?
performance; where 慴est-in-class?was
based on performance per runway configuration
of today, and further increased to
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(9)
