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This was achieved by defining a set of
four scenarios, each of them having rather
different circumstances, and by modelling
the demand and traffic numbers for each
of these. Each of the scenarios is characterised
by a basic 憇tory-line? which is
translated into quantitative terms in a mix
of factors (economic growth, oil and ticket
prices, passenger demand, etc.) which
are used in the forecast model.
The four scenarios used in the Long-
Term Forecast 2008 are: a strong-growth
scenario A (global growth) whose storyline
is for strong economic growth in an
increasingly globalised economy, with
technology used successfully to mitigate
the effects of challenges such as the
environment and security; two mediumgrowth
scenarios: B (business as usual)
with moderate economic growth and little
change from the status quo, that is to say
trends continue as currently observed, and
C (regulation and growth) with moderate
economic growth, but with stronger regulation
to address growing environmental
challenges for aviation and for Europe
more generally; and a low-growth scenario
D (fragmenting world) with a world characterised
by increasing tensions between
regions, with knock-on effects of weaker
economies, reduced trade and less longhaul
travel.
Scenario C (regulation and growth)
is seen as the 憁ost likely?of the
four, and scenario A (global growth)
is clearly the 憁ost challenging?
for network capacity. The 2008
Challenges of Growth study therefore
focuses on these two.
Results
The results of the Long-Term Forecast
2008 are that there will be between 16.5
million and 22.1 million IFR (instrument
flight rules) flights in Europe1 in 2030. This
is between 1.7 and 2.2 times the number
seen in 2007, an average growth of
2.2%-3.5% a year. This doubling of traffic
by 2030 means that every year, more than
1000 extra flights will need to be handled
on a typical day than in the year before.
1- 慐urope?
here means the
EUROCONTROL
Statistical
Reference Area
(ESRA).
See the report
for its definition.
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 9
In 2030, the typical number of flights in
the European network in one day will be
18,000-33,000 more than now.
The growth in traffic is not evenly distributed:
growth is stronger in the Eastern
European States, which are catching up
with the more developed economies in
the West. As a result, Turkey and Poland
will join the 10 busiest states in Europe
by 2030.
Not surprisingly, it is the bigger States
(Germany, followed by France and the UK)
which will see the biggest growth in flights
through their airspace. However, not all
of that growth is home-grown: overflights
play an important role in future forecast
growth, from the perspective of both the
individual States and the whole of Europe.
In many Western European States, the
domestic air transport market is showing
the slow growth or decline which indicates
increasing maturity. Moreover, on
some busy routes, short-haul air travellers
will continue to switch to the improving
high-speed rail network. As a result,
growth in traffic, both within States and
within Europe, is significantly slower than
for flights to and from Europe, or indeed
those over Europe which do not land
here. Some non-European economies
(China, India, Russia, etc.) are expected
to develop strongly in the coming years
and the related business opportunities will
increase the number of flights connecting
them with Europe. In the most likely,
搑egulation and growth?scenario, flights
within Europe will grow by only 1.9%
a year, while those departing from or
arriving in Europe from other regions will
grow by 4.7% a year. The most dynamic
movement, albeit relatively small in absolute
numbers, will be the growth in flights
between a pair of non-European regions
crossing European airspace (5.7% a year).
All of the above results refer to the forecast
number of flights in Europe. The
underlying demand for flights from
passengers and airlines is, however,
much larger than the forecast number
of flights: 2.3 million flights more in the
most likely, 搑egulation and growth?
scenario and as many as 7.0 million
flights in the most challenging, 揼lobal
growth?scenario in 2030. This difference
between the demand and the number
of flights is essentially the result of insufficient
capacity of the airport system.
The final effect on forecast traffic is that
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(5)
