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thorough analysis of its findings will allow
the industry to take stock. After all, it says
a forecast is all about 揼iving structure to
uncertainty?
Long-term challenges
The five main long-term challenges
identified in the study give a clear
indication of just how complex
the problems are. They hinge
around a set of interconnected
pressure points
over which no single
organisation has control.
EUROCONTROL抯 David
Marsh, who led the
study, accepts that the
challenges are significant,
but insists that they are
surmountable. They are:
n airport capacity;
n sustainability;
n congestion;
n institutional and social change;
n climate change.
After investigating a series of growth
scenarios ?ranging from strong to fragmented
growth ?the report highlights a
forecast which assumes that, by 2030,
there will be 揵etween 1.7 and 2.2 times
the number of flights in Europe seen in
2007? In the most likely scenario, 2030
traffic is 1.8 times greater, but demand
is 2.3 million flights higher than that. Put
in a different way, 11% of flights which
would like to take place will not be able
to, at least not from the airport and at the
time they would prefer. These flights are
referred to as unaccommodated.
This additional number of flights will be
accompanied by growing environmental
pressures which will be supported by ever
closer regulation as a response to reduced
tolerance of air traffic environmental
effects, both at the global level with regard
to emissions, and more specifically at local
level, where residents around airports
are becoming less tolerant of noise and
pollution. Although airports and aviation
bring wealth, it seems there is a paradox:
the greater the wealth, the lower the level
of tolerance of the inconvenience which
produces it.
Implementing solutions
The solutions to these challenges are
achievable but require a huge amount of
work, and are not necessarily guaranteed
to solve the problem completely. Nor are
they without their own dilemmas and inadFocus
28
Independent Platform
equacies. The five solutions studied in the
report are: schedule smoothing, alternative
airports, larger aircraft, high-speed trains
and exploiting the benefits of SESAR.
To echo the report, 揋ood decisions
require good data?and EUROCONTROL
has benefited greatly from its collaboration
with the Airports Council International
(ACI). This close cooperation has provided
development plans for 138 European
airports. These show that progress is
being made. If everything goes to plan, by
2030, airport capacity will be expanded
by 41% as a result of the introduction of a
number of new airports, 29 new runways
and extensive work at other airports on
the air- and ground-side infrastructure.
This is, of course, welcome news, but
by 2030 it is very likely that as many as
19 airports in Europe will be operating at
full capacity. Marsh points out that this
will have a very unwelcome effect on
large portions of the network. Although
smoothing the schedules by managing
slot allocations means that a gridlock situation
can always be avoided, if this many
airports are 憁axed out?the slightest incident
could have disproportionate results.
Aircraft which suffer a technical fault in
the morning, for example, will not be able
to take advantage of the lunch-time dip
in manoeuvres to make their departure,
because there will not be one. As Marsh
puts it, under these congested conditions,
搘e can expect much greater delay and
many more cancellations? The network will
be so heavily laden with traffic that it will be
almost impossible to recover from even the
smallest incidents. Furthermore, passengers
may resist attempts to schedule their
flights at inconvenient times, such as very
early morning or late evening.
Likewise, the use of alternative airports
may not suit everybody. Although the
low-cost airlines have been prominent
pioneers of this strategy, there is some
tangible evidence of a growing reluctance
to accept flights to airports many miles
from one抯 final destination. Where the
ground infrastructure of affordable transport,
such as trains and buses, is lacking,
these airports do not always represent an
acceptable alternative unless the airline
ticket price makes it an enticing option.
Another consideration is the additional
environmental effect which the need for
supplementary transport on this scale
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(21)
