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growth
Flights in Europe (million)
10
8
6
4
2
0
5%
0%
-5%
Annual growth
1960 1970
Oil
Oil
Economic
boom
Gulf war
IT boom
Kosovo
9/11
1980 1990 2000
1- See www.
eurocontrol.int/
statfor.
Figure 1
Focus
6
The scope of the report is as broad as
these challenges themselves. The study
directly addresses:
n the growth in demand for air traffic,
through a new long-term forecast;
n the ever-developing plans of airports
to respond to that demand; increasingly
this also takes in TMA capacity;
n the gap between those plans and
the demand for flights, and the implications
of this for the air transport
network;
n what can be done to bridge the gap;
n the increasing difficulty in meeting
the European economy抯 need for
mobility without compromising
environmental goals, indeed the
increasing difficulty of balancing
competing environmental goals,
such as local noise and global
emissions;
n how the changing climate will
change aviation.
The report also provides a broad survey
of how those in the industry see the
outlook for 2030 and its challenges (see
article on page 16).
A deliberate omission from this list is
en-route capacity. Of course we at
EUROCONTROL and our colleagues in
the industry are well aware that there are
major risks and challenges in delivering the
required en-route capacity on time, but as
with previous studies the output from this
one will be used to help scale the future
ATM system, rather than vice versa.
Changes
in aviation outlook
The demand for the first 揅hallenges?
study came out of the Kosovo crisis. In
January 2000, the European Ministers
of Transport discussed the challenges
presented by the growth in air transport
2008 Challenges of Growth study
Air traffic growth
is not an aim in its own
right and, depending on
the criteria, it can be
either a benefit
or a threat.
demand and in delays. In particular, they
voiced concerns about safety, shortages
of air traffic controllers, growing
congestion at airports, the environment
and sustainable development.
Ministers asked the Directors General of
the European Civil Aviation Conference
(ECAC) and EUROCONTROL to study
these questions in cooperation with
stakeholders.
The result was a study called
揅onstraints to Growth? published in
2001. The study forecast a 揼rowing
mismatch between supply and demand?
with some 15% of demand 搉ot accommodated?
by 2010, meaning that 15% of
flights for which there would be demand
would not be performed owing to lack
of capacity. The report highlighted the
inter-dependencies between constraints
within the air traffic network, and hence
the need for a strategy which addressed
the network as a whole.
The second study was launched to
update the initial results in the light of
changes to air traffic in Europe, such
as the growth of low-cost carriers and
the down-turn in traffic linked to 9/11.
Challenges to Growth 2004 indicated
that, even if many airports could be
brought to best-in-class performance
by 2025, it would still be impossible to
accommodate 18% of demand by then,
and that the top 20 airports would be
saturated at least 8-10 hours per day.
The 2004 report has provided a shared
reference point for much of the discussion
in Europe on airport constraints in
the last four years, and its results are
widely quoted as evidence in SESAR
?V閞onique Paul/Graphix
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 7
reports and in communications from
European institutions and from stakeholder
associations. For example,
SESAR calculated that by 2025, the lack
of capacity could cost the European
economy €90 billion/year.
The 揅hallenges?study needed a further
update to reflect the many changes
in the outlook for aviation over the last
four years, not just the continuing evolution
in demand and changes to airports?
plans in response to that, but also the
rapid development in the understanding
of environmental questions and the
industry and regulatory response to
them.
The 2008 update improves on the
previous studies as a result of a closer
engagement with stakeholders, a more
complete survey of airports?plans for
future capacity, detailed discussions
on future visions for aviation and the
resulting challenges, and approaches to
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(3)
