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in the most likely scenario 11% of flight
demand will not be accommodated at
European airports in 2030, rising to a
quarter of demand in the most challenging
scenario.
The seriously-challenged air traffic
network will not simply reject this unaccommodated
demand and continue
to operate as efficiently as today. The
network will be challenged both because
more and more segments of the network
reach their capacity and because delaycausing
events become more likely (see
the article later on climate change). As a
result, the network will be vulnerable both
to regular delays and to flight cancellations
on an unprecedented scale unless
there strong action is taken to manage
the situation. Even in the modest-growth,
搑egulation and growth?scenario, 19
European airports will need to operate
at full capacity more than 8 hours a day
in 2030. This number rises to 39 airports
for the most challenging scenario. In
comparison with today抯 situation, this
means that in 2030 there will be close
to 20 European airports operating very
much like Heathrow does now.
In his opening article, Bo Redeborn illustrated
how the growth in European flight
numbers has been constant at an annual
rate of just under 4% for many years.
The forecast is that this trend is reaching
its end in Europe: a combination of
maturing markets, airport constraints, and
increasing costs of fuel and emissions
point to slower growth in the years to
come. However, even slower growth will
bring challenges. n
More details of the forecast are in the
long-term forecast report, available at
www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
In 2030, the typical number of
flights in the European network
in one day will be 18,000-
33,000 more than now.
Focus
10
Improved environmental performance
has become a necessity. If efficiency can be
further improved and emissions cut, this will lead
to environmental benefits whilst at the same time
improving the image of the aviation industry.
Ultimately, this can only lead to a more sustainable
and profitable business, as Andrew Watt,
Rachel Burbidge and Alan Melrose of the Agency抯
Environment Unit explain.
Despite aviation抯 comparatively small
contribution of 2% to man-made CO2
emissions, the public and media perception
of the industry抯 environmental
impact ensures its continued prominence
on the political agenda. As a result, the
industry is subject to increasing environmental
regulation.
The Single European Sky ATM Research
(SESAR) initiative calls for a 10% reduction
in environmental impact per flight
and October 2008 marked the formal
agreement by the European Council
to include civil aviation in the European
Union抯 emissions trading scheme (EU
ETS), as a means of controlling and
reducing aviation emissions as part of
the global attempt to combat climate
change. Coming into force in 2012, the
aviation element of the scheme will cover
all flights arriving at or departing from EU
airports, making it necessary for aircraft
operators to acquire a permit to cover
the emissions their fleets will produce.
This may be followed by further regulation
to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx)
emissions if a sound scientific basis for
this can be established. No new legislation
on noise or local air quality is
currently envisaged at EU level. However,
emissions-related landing charges are
either already in place or planned at
airports in Switzerland, Sweden and at
some UK and German airports. This trend
is expected to continue, although, unlike
in the case of noise-related charges,
there is no firm evidence yet that it alters
fleet composition.
Environmental and
economic pressures
It is no secret that the aviation industry
is under pressure from fuel prices and a
global economic slow-down, but what
effect will this additional, environmentdriven,
regulation have on an industry
which is already striving to become
both economically and environmentally
sustainable?
Increased fuel prices have already
been the catalyst for a drive towards
improved efficiency, aimed at cutting
costs by decreasing fuel consumption
through steps such as development of
more efficient aircraft, reducing aircraft
weight ?many airlines now carry plastic
wine bottles because they are lighter ?or
improving gate-to-gate efficiency where
possible. As 1 tonne of fuel produces
just over 3 tonnes of CO2, any cost linked
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(6)
