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result, we assumed an increase of
25% as the order of magnitude for
long-haul flights.
Concerning medium-haul flights,
different versions of the A320 family
indicated an increase in the number
of seats varying from 15 to 22%,
whilst the Boeing 737 family offered
an increase of 13 to 26%. It therefore
seems appropriate to assume
an increase of 20% as the order of
magnitude for medium-haul flights.
This step takes into account the information
provided by experts during
stakeholder discussions.
n A second step, which augmented the
aircraft size even further and assumed
an increase of 40% for medium-haul
flights and 50% for long-haul ones.
Medium-haul flights were replaced
by the largest aircraft currently available
in the category of medium haul
aircraft, namely A321s and B737-900
ERs. An equivalent approach was
used for long-haul flights.
The conservative step has the potential to
recover half of the flights lost when a cap
of 30 one-way flights per day is applied
to congested airports. If we increase the
aircraft size even further (the second step
above), nearly all lost demand could be
satisfied.
Conclusions
Six mitigation methods were analysed,
each with a potential for reducing the
levels of unaccommodated demand at
the 2030 time horizon. In the complete
absence of such action, the unaccommodated
demand at 2030 is forecast to
be 2.3 million flights per year in the most
likely scenario.
Discussions with a number of airlines and
airports allowed the modelling approach
to be adapted in order to take into
account the characteristics of the various
operators. The results of the modelling
exercise are summarised in the table
above.
Alternative airports and SESAR improvements
appear to be the most effective
methods since they could bring up to
40% gains. Combining their effects would
provide even better results, with gains of up
to 60%.
Schedule smoothing and accelerated
investment in high-speed train infrastructure
offer much less scope for reducing unaccommodated
demand than may have been
considered to be the case in the past.
The use of larger aircraft is a slightly
different method insofar as the objective is
to meet passenger demand while reducing
the number of flights. This method has the
potential to recover a major part of flights
lost when frequency capping is applied to
congested airports. n
More detailed information can be found in
the EEC Report No. 10-08 entitled 慚itigating
against the Challenges for Air Transport 2030?
to be published in early 2009.
Acknowledgements
The study would not have been possible
without the involvement of experts in the
industry who gave their time and provided
invaluable input for the specifications of the
mitigation methods.
Particular thanks go to Marc Dalichampt,
Magda Gregorova, Hamid Kadour, Alan
Marsden, David Marsh, Anthony Leggat,
Elisabeth Petit, Francis Richards and also to
Jean-Pierre Nicolaon from ADV Syst鑝es.
60%
40%
20%
0%
Alternative
airports
SESAR
improvements
Schedule
smoothing
High-speed
train investment
Mix of SESAR
improvements
and alternative
airports
Maximum potential gains in reducing
unaccommodated demand
Focus
16
Nadine Pilon and Lawrence Brom, experts at the EUROCONTROL
Experimental Centre, explain the scope and findings of a qualitative
survey which complements the 2008 Challenges of Growth study,
reporting the views of leading experts across the industry on
the long-term challenges (2030) in air transport.
Background
Since the beginning of commercial air
transport, air traffic has been growing
at a steady annual rate of approximately
5%, and even worldwide crises
such as the Gulf War and 9/11 have
slowed down and delayed growth only
by a few months. That is why future air
traffic growth is sometimes taken for
granted, especially by the industry.
However, a number of signs are now
appearing, such as airport congestion,
the rise in oil prices and concern over
global warming, which challenge the
notion of growth in the future and raise
various questions. Are we reaching a
level of air traffic maturity in Europe?
When and how will air traffic growth
stabilise? What are the main drivers
behind the evolution of air traffic? What
are the risks and how can we reinforce
the sustainability of air transport?
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(11)
