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What influences will prove critical in the
future? These were questions which led
to the present survey.
Methodology
The survey was carried out between
November 2007 and April 2008 via
anonymous interviews with more
than 40 experts and leaders from the
air transport industry. These represented
airspace users, infrastructure
and service providers, policy-makers,
industry and regulators, as well as
engineers, researchers and frontline
operators, such as the European
Commission, the European Environment
Agency, IATA, ACI Europe, the Air
Traffic Alliance, Airbus, CANSO, IFATCA,
and also experts from airlines, research
establishments and EUROCONTROL.
The views of the experts were analysed
and organised into themes which make
up the structure of the report findings.
The survey does not, however, represent
the views of EUROCONTROL nor
of all the interviewees.
Future challenges
The experts?views on the future air
transport challenges were organised
into eleven themes falling into three main
areas:
Air transport demand: the main
driver behind air traffic growth will
remain the increase in demand for air
travel, which seems set to continue.
A Single European
air transport
infrastructure
Air transport
infrastructure
Governance
& liability
SESAR
implementation
The Single European Sky
The challenge of defragmentation
The challenge of ATM investment costs
European Parliamant
European Commission
EUROCONTROL
SESAR
SESAR
The ATM target concept
Standardisation
SESAR management
Long-term challenges
in air transport
What the experts have to say
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 17
However, the European and global
air transport market will be affected
by a number of factors relating to the
economy, the environment, security
and safety, the impact of which remains
uncertain.
Air transport supply: in order to
respond successfully to increasing
future demand, the air transport actors
will need to be supported by a policy
vision which provides for sufficient
capacity and optimises the use of air
transport抯 scarce resources, while
adapting to the evolution of their business
models.
Air transport infrastructure: building
a single European air transport
infrastructure (SES) will depend on the
establishment of its governance, in the
particular context of States?liability. In
addition, the successful implementation
of SESAR will depend on the fitness
for purpose of the underlying concepts
and on a number of standardisation
and management questions, whereas
research will need to continuously
prepare for the future.
Findings
The survey provides reassurance that
at a time when air transport growth is
sometimes being challenged, the trend
in the long term will remain stable even
if the political and economic climate
may affect growth rates. The main
factors likely to affect growth are fuel
and ticket prices, a growing environmental
awareness in society, and eventual
restrictions on the use of fossil
fuel. Planning for and understanding
future travel needs are vital for future air
transport.
The need to modernise the air transport
infrastructure through SESAR has
been reaffirmed. Success entails finding
workable solutions to European regulation,
liability and sovereignty questions
for an industrial sector dealing with the
safety and security of citizens. It also
requires a solution to the problem of
financing a large transport infrastructure
serving multiple stakeholders.
Finally, the air transport infrastructure
will have to defragment the ATM
network and, owing to the increasing
scarcity of its resources (slots, frequencies,
etc.), move towards a network
congestion management approach.
The new ATM concepts will change the
role of human operators in the system,
requiring more research, effort and
innovative solutions during the transition
phase in order to address the questions
of safety and standardisation.
Fuel and ticket prices
The increase in fuel prices is a longterm
trend which will profoundly
restructure the air transport market.
It will reduce profit margins and may
affect the economic sustainability of the
industry. However, there is confidence
among the experts that oil prices will
not be a show-stopper: air transport
can probably afford expensive fuel, and
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(12)
