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but navigation will increasingly be
based on satellites. Operationally, the
responsibility for separation will increasingly
lie with the pilot (using ASAS for
example). In the very long term, States
will free themselves entirely of any liability
for safety. Article 28 of the Chicago
Convention will need to be changed.
The EC 搈arket-led?economic
regulation model
The European Community抯 model of
regulation is 搈arket-led standardisation?
and relies on the companies involved.
This model is imposed on ATM where
safety is much more critical than in other
sectors. Applying economic efficiency
rules to safety does not work. Regulated
economies need strong States, i.e. ones
which have competence, with legal and
technical powers, and are able to resist
powerful companies and lobbies. ATM
requires a strong regulator with strong
technical expertise, which defines the
vision and guidelines and 揷reates?the
market by standardisation and certification
(e.g. SESAR).
Financing the air transport
system infrastructure
On the airspace users?side, the costs of
the investment in infrastructure (including
SESAR) need to be equitably shared
between the users (hence the payers
should be the beneficiaries). The military
will incur enormous costs in order to
achieve compliance with SESAR. Airlines
will have to equip their fleets to fly in
SESAR airspace. Even for air navigation
service providers (ANSPs) and States,
the legacy systems will be very expensive
to upgrade. New small aircraft, with
no legacy, may be the 憊ehicles?to bring
new technology into the system.
Network defragmentation
Defragmentation is a particularly thorny
issue in Europe. ANSPs are small businesses
which want to stay alive. They
are supported by the drive for autonomy
and sovereignty which will exist as long
as Europe does not have an integrated
What the experts have to say
The whole air transport
system needs to become more
flexible in order to efficiently
handle a range of possible
future scenarios.
Skyway 50 - Winter 2008 19
European defence system, and this will
probably not emerge in the 2030-2040
timeframe. One of the major challenges
of defragmentation is to clarify the roles
of ANSPs, industry, the institutions and
EUROCONTROL. In a European landscape
governed by common standards
and a common system architecture, it is
important to know who is in charge of
regulation, specification, system construction,
and certification, and ultimately who
is in charge of operations and operators.
Scarcity management
Air transport is moving from a situation of
unlimited resources (runways, airspace,
fuel, emissions, time, etc.) to one of scarcity.
The question will no longer be how
to increase capacity in order to cope with
demand, but increasingly how to manage
scarce resources. Airports, runways,
TMAs and frequencies will be scarce
resources for air transport.
The changing role of the human
operators
To meet the target objective of a three-fold
increase in traffic in the long term (2050),
more automation will be required and the
role of human beings in the system will
have to be addressed against this background.
A number of examples illustrate
the benefits of automation for significantly
increasing capacity. The operating roles
will be subject to radical changes. This
will trigger resistance aimed at maintaining
the status quo, using safety as a
pretext.
Safety of complex ATM systems
Safety is a pre-requisite for air transport.
Society is increasingly less tolerant of
risk. In the context of the modernisation
of the ATM system based on humancentred
automation with the role of
human beings being redefined, maintaining
safety levels involves a number
of challenges (the risk of criminalisation
of professionals, resistance to economic
pressures, difficulty of ensuring safety for
an automated system of systems).
Shortage of competent resources
in the transition phase
Change will be slower than expected.
There are significant cultural and operational
maturity differences within Europe.
Where maturity is low, basic problems
will have to be resolved before significant
advances can be made in the areas
of human performance, safety, and
security. Controller working practices
may constitute a problem for system
development. In the human performance
area, there is a shortage of personnel to
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(14)
