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technological solutions based on alternative
fuels will appear in time. Ticket
prices are probably at the bottom of
the curve. Long-term forecasts show
that we can still expect 2.5% growth
per annum up to 2025. However, the
impressive growth of less constrained
emerging economic regions is a challenge
for the European air transport
industry.
Air transport
demand
Air transport
supply
Demand for air travel
Economy and air transport
Environment
Evolution of business models
European air transport vision
Scarce resources in air transport
Safety
Security
Leisure air travel
Professional mobility
Freight
Fuel price
European aviation in the global economy
Sustainability
Ticket price
Political considerations and societal evolution
Noise versus emission, a technological and political dilemma
Technical and operational considerations
Economic regulation
Dramatic events and effects on aviation
Security filtering at airports
Security research and development
New trends in European short-haul air transport
Airlines
Airports
Aviation manufacturers
New airspace users
Military users
Airport capacity
TMA capacity
Frequencies spectrum
Global vision and policy orientation in Europe
R&D priorities in the air transport industry
Focus
18
The environment
Politically, there is a shared awareness
that climate change will dramatically
modify our societies in the long term. Air
transport抯 image in public opinion has
been tarnished owing to its perceived
impact on the environment. The main levy
to reduce aviation emissions will have the
effect of reducing travel demand through
taxes and/or individual emissions quotas.
Aviation抯 environmental impact includes
noise pollution in addition to gaseous
emissions. There are hardly any technical
solutions which tackle both problems
simultaneously. Trade-off decisions have
to be made by all industry actors. The
potentially negative impact of any drastic
green approach on the supply industry is
a matter for concern. There is a need for
global agreements on such measures in
order to maintain fair competition.
Restrictions on the use
of fossil fuel
There will probably be political or financial
restrictions on the use of fossil fuels.
Society will need alternative fuels and
engines to use them. In aeronautics,
it takes five to ten years to develop a
product. This lead time is often underestimated.
The product has a 30- to 50-year
life span. Consequently, developing new
technology for 2020 is no longer the
target. Industry is calling for a longer-term
vision, namely one for the next 50 years.
IATA is challenging the industry to build a
zero-emission aircraft in that timeframe.
Security questions
Dramatic events have a detrimental effect
on the growth of air transport, but security
checks place an additional burden
on travel. Security questions requiring
research and development include crisis
management, filtering (with solutions
such as 搕he trusted passenger?, and
attack prevention by means of airport
and aircraft protection technologies.
Planning and understanding
future travel needs
The air transport world makes forecasts
and predictions but fails to understand
the influencing factors. An improved
understanding of these factors would help
refine projections and better orientate and
arbitrate the whole development life-cycle
from research to implementation.
Sovereignty and civil-military
cooperation
National borders are limiting seamless
operations in European air transport. The
Single European Sky initiative is there to
modernise European ATM. However,
the EC has no jurisdiction over military
matters. The population is not ready to
delegate sovereignty to Europe. There is
no public outcry over the poor ATC performance.
There are no votes to be won by
giving up airspace. Politicians need crises
in order to take difficult decisions about
the sovereignty aspects raised in SES by
functional airspace blocks (FABs).
Liability questions
By 2025, multiple bilateral State agreements
to address the question of sovereignty
in FABs will probably have been
replaced by a general agreement.
Delegation of airspace involves human
responsibility and legal liability questions.
At present, procedures and liability are
based on terrestrial navigation infrastructures,
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Skyway Magazine Winter 2008(13)
