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NAS Modernization Task Force
Risk Reduction Matrix - January 1998
R Serious Concern Y Limited Concern G No concern
Risk Factors Major CNS Programs Free Flight Phase 1 DSS Infrastructure
GPS/WAAS
CPDLC Build 2
Applications
NEXCOM
Extensive ADS-B
A/A and A/G
TIS/FIS
Initial conflict
probe
CPDLC Build 1
(Now)
Limited CTAS
Full CTAS
CDM/TFM
Interim Host
DSR
En route
Infrastructure
STARS
Avionics Costs Airlines R R R R R G G G G G G G G G
GA R R R R R G G G G G G G G G
Certification R R R R R Y R Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Requirements
uncertainty &
complexity
R Y R R Y G G Y R R G G Y Y
Information
Security R R Y R G G R Y Y Y G G G Y
Procedures/Ops.
Concepts Y Y Y Y R Y G Y R R G G G Y
International
Standards Y R Y Y Y G G G G G G G G G
Technical/
Information
architecture
Y G Y R G G G Y Y Y G G G G
Adaptation Y G G G G Y G Y R Y G G G G
Deployment rate FAA Y R R Y R R R R R R R R R Y
limitations User Y Y R Y Y G G G G R G G G G
System Acceptance FAA Y R Y R Y R R Y R Y Y Y Y R
User Y Y R Y Y G Y G G G G G G G
Acknowledgement: NMTF
16
© 2000 The MITRE Corporation
Revised NAS Modernization Strategies
Strategy Targeted Modernization
ATM Decision Support Systems
with low risk factors
and early user benefits
Previously Flight 2000
CNS Operational Enhancements
with high risk factors
and large potential benefits
17
© 2000 The MITRE Corporation
Changes: The Bottom Line
• Implementation of Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) initially as a
Core Capability Limited Deployment in selected facilities to
attain early user benefits
– Reduce deployment rate constraints (especially with the
requirement to deploy interim Host by 2000)
– Reduce system acceptance risks
– Begin wider deployment in mid-term
• Modification of Flight 2000 (now called Safe Flight 21) to
address most of the critical risk areas associated with key
CNS programs
– Ensure that research activities are associated with clearlystated
user needs (user acceptance)
– Address the critical issues of avionics costs, certification,
requirements (uncertainty and complexity), and information
security
– Develop and maintain industry support
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© 2000 The MITRE Corporation
NAS Evolution at a Glance
ATM DSS CCLD by 2002
Wider
ATM DSS
Deployment
4.5
NEXT GEN. ATM DSS
Safe Flight 21
OPS EVALUATION
CNS TECH DEPLOYMENT
CNS RISK
MITIGATION
ANALYSIS
ATM
CNS
INTEGRATED
ATM/CNS Operational Capability
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FAA’s Free Flight Modernization Initiatives(5)
