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In the second step, the goal is to process this information to determine whether the identified hazards constitute risk, which is defined as the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. The degree of risk posed by a given hazard can be measured in terms of exposure (number of people or resources affected), severity (extent of possible loss), and probability (the likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss). If the hazard is low ceilings, for example, the level of risk depends on a number of other factors, such as pilot training and experience, aircraft equipment, and fuel capacity.
In the third step, the goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome of this action. With the example of low ceilings at destination, for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by selecting a suitable alternate, knowing where to find good weather, and carrying sufficient fuel to reach it. This course of action would mitigate the risk. The pilot also has the option to eliminate it entirely by waiting for better weather.
9-9
Figure 9-5. 3P Model (Perceive, Process, and Perform).
Aeronautica
lDecision-Making(Perceive)(Perform)(Process)
Once the pilot has completed the 3P decision process and selected a course of action, the process begins again because the set of circumstances brought about by the course of action requires analysis. The decision-making process is a continuous loop of perceiving, processing, and performing.
It is never too early to start teaching students about risk management. Using the 3P model gives CFIs a tool to teach them a structured, efficient, and systematic way to identify hazards, assess risk, and implement effective risk controls. Practicing risk management needs to be as automatic in general aviation (GA) flying as basic aircraft control. Consider making the 3P discussion a standard feature of the preflight discussion. As is true for other flying skills, risk management habits are best developed through repetition and consistent adherence to specific procedures.
Hazard List for Aviation Technicians
AMTs should learn about risk management early in training, also. Instructors tasked with integrating risk management into instruction can turn to hazard assessments that identify the safety risks associated with the facility being used, the tools used in the procedure, and/or the job being performed.
The process for identifying hazards can be accomplished through the use of checklists, lessons learned, compliance inspections/audits, accidents/near misses, regulatory developments, and brainstorming sessions. For example, aviation accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) can be used to generate discussions pertaining to faulty maintenance that led to aircraft accidents. All available sources should be used for identifying, characterizing, and controlling safety risks.
The 3P model can also be adapted for use in a nonflight environment, such as a maintenance facility. For example, the AMT perceives a hazard, processes its impact on shop or personnel safety, and then performs by implementing the best course of action to mitigate the perceived risk.
Pilot Self-Assessment
Setting personal minimums is an important step in mitigating risk, and safe pilots know how to properly self-assess. For example, in the opening scenario, the aircraft Mary plans to fly may have a maximum crosswind component of 15 knots listed in the aircraft flight manual (AFM), but she only has experience with 10 knots of direct crosswind. It could be unsafe to exceed a 10 knots crosswind component without additional training. Therefore, the 10 knot crosswind experience level is Mary’s personal limitation until additional training with Daniel provides her with additional experience for flying in crosswinds that exceed 10 knots.
Pilots in training must be taught that exercising good judgment begins prior to taking the controls of an aircraft. Often, pilots thoroughly check their aircraft to determine airworthiness, yet do not evaluate their own fitness for flight. Just as a checklist is used when preflighting an aircraft, a personal checklist based on such factors as experience, currency, and comfort level can help determine if a pilot is prepared for a particular flight. The FAA’s “Personal Minimums Checklist” located in Appendix D is an excellent tool for pilots to use in self-assessment. This checklist reflects the PAVE approach to risk mitigation discussed in the previous paragraphs.
Worksheets for a more in-depth risk assessment are located in the “FAA/Industry Training Standards Personal and Weather Risk Assessment Guide” located online at www.faa.gov. This guide is designed to assist pilots in developing personal standardized procedures for accomplishing PIC responsibilities and in making better preflight and inflight weather decisions. CFIs should stress that frequent review of the personal guide keeps the information fresh and increases a pilot’s ability to recognize the conditions in which a new risk assessment should be made, a key element in the decision-making process. Situational Awareness
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