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In casual conversation, “routine” means
“repetitive.” In software terms, however, “routine”
means “expressible in rules.” Determining
whether a person is a potential burglar
or a worker staying late is not easily encoded
in rules.
A security guard is not paid well because
most humans can do the job. But that does
not mean the job is easy to program. The distinction
between “easy for humans to do” and
“easy to program computers to do” helps to
explain why routine service workers – cafeteria
workers, janitors – have not been replaced
by computers, and why the fraction of adults
in service work has grown.
More generally, the theory implicit in
Simon’s 1960 essay provides a coherent story
about why occupations changed as they did:
• The growing number of service workers
refl ects the inability to describe human
optical recognition and many physical movements
in sets of rules.
• The growth in sales occupations (fastfood
clerks through bond traders) stems in
part from the way that an increased fl ow
of new products – driven by computers –
increases the need for selling, and in part
from the inability of rules to describe the
exchange of complex information that salesmanship
requires.
THE ADULT OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION, 1969 AND 1999
source: Authors’ tabulations of data from the March 1970 and March 2000 Current Population Surveys.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Service
Workers
Blue-Collar
Workers
Administrative-
Support Workers
Sales-Related
Occupations
Technicians Professional
Occupations
Managers and
Administrators
1969 1999
PERCENT OF EMPLOYED ADULTS
70 The Milken Institute Review
• The growth in the professional, managerial
and technical occupation grouping
refl ects the inability to express high-end cognitive
activities in rules: formulating and
solving new problems, exercising good judgment
in the face of uncertainty, creating new
products and services.
• In contrast, many blue-collar and administrative-
support jobs can be described in
rules, and this accounts in large part for
the decline in these two categories through
both direct substitution and computer-assisted
outsourcing.
As a result, the number of menial jobs is
growing, but the general shift of occupations
is toward higher-end jobs. While computers
are not responsible for all of these changes,
they do play a major role in bringing them
about.
Before leaving this picture, we have one
loose end to consider – the Bureau of Labor
Statistics projection that food preparation
and service workers will be the occupation
with the largest job growth over the
next decade. How can this projection square
with the general shift of occupations toward
higher skilled jobs?
In the year 2000, there were more food preparers
and servers in the economy (about 2.2
million) than there were lawyers (681,000),
doctors (598,000) or electrical engineers
(450,000). But these head-to-head comparisons
tell us little since food preparation and
service workers are counted under one occupational
title while jobs requiring signifi cant
education tend to be divided into many occupations
(e.g., electrical engineering is one of
16 major engineering occupations classifi ed
in BLS statistics).
The shift that Jeremy Rifkin feared, a “deskilled”
occupational structure, requires that
the total number of low-skilled jobs increases
more than the total number of higher skilled
jobs. These totals are the kind of occupational
categories displayed in the chart on page
69, where food-preparation and service workers
are included in service occupations. Once
we move from individual job titles to occupational
categories, the evidence of de-skilling
disappears. Between 1969 and 1999, employment
in service jobs grew from 11.6 percent
to 13.9 percent of the adult workforce. But
getty images
Fourth Quarter 2004 71
managers, administrators, professional workers
and technicians taken together – the highest
paid categories – grew from 23 percent to
33 percent.
The Distribution of Wages
In a healthy economy, demands for different
kinds of workers are changing all the time –
and changing so quickly that it is common for
specifi c kinds of workers to fi nd themselves in
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