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and managing – all tasks requiring
expert thinking and complex communication.
But if high school graduates in computer-
intensive industries also saw their jobs shift
toward these two kinds of tasks, it would be
additional evidence of how deep computerization
has reached into the workplace.
In fact, this has been the case. In the work
with David Autor, we show that the past two
decades have seen increases in the percentage
of high school graduates working at jobs that
emphasize complex communication and
WITHIN-INDUSTRY CHANGES IN TASK FREQUENCY FROM 1980 - 1998, AND PREDICTED
CHANGES IN TASK FREQUENCY HAD THERE BEEN NO INCREASE IN COMPUTER USE.
source: Revised version of fi gure from David Autor, Frank Levy, and Richard J. Murnane, “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change:
An Empirical Exploration,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (November 2003): 4.
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
INDEX OF CHANGE
Complex
Communication
Expert
Thinking
Routine
Cognitive
Routine
Manual
ACTUAL CHANGES 1980 - 1998
PREDICTED CHANGE WITH NO INCREASE IN COMPUTER USE
76 The Milken Institute Review
substantial declines in the percentages of high
school graduates working at jobs that emphasized
routine cognitive or routine manual
tasks. Consistent with our theory, these changes
were concentrated in industries that experienced
the greatest growth in computer
usage.
why task changes
are actually larger
While the chart on page 74 displays large
changes in the tasks carried out by workers,
the chart actually understates the changes
that have taken place. Because the task content
data from the Dictionary of Occupational
Titles are updated infrequently, this
chart displays only task changes resulting
from shifts in the economy’s mix of jobs. It
does not refl ect task changes that occur within
jobs. But hundreds of examples show that
task changes within jobs have been quite
large.
Consider “exceptions processing” at Cabot
Bank, a large New England retail bank. Ten
years ago, each exceptions-processing clerk
in the bank’s back offi ces worked with paper
checks and handled a single kind of exception
– say, overdrafts. Within the customer’s
account, the overdraft might be part of a
more complicated set of transactions, but this
was not the clerk’s concern. The unit’s manager
described the work as “checking your
brains at the door.”
Today, exceptions clerks handle all exceptions
in an account – overdrafts, stop payments,
address changes and so on – as they
reconstruct what a customer was actually trying
to do. If they want to advance, they are
also expected to make suggestions to improve
department operations. The job now requires
both greater skills and more initiative.
The job of stockbroker has changed in
similar ways. Twenty years ago, most stockbrokers
provided buy and sell recommendations,
company research and general conversation.
Advising customers on other fi nancial
issues – the best way to save for a child’s education
– was beyond their job. Stockbrokers
were paid a substantial commission on each
customer trade. The commission was a “bundled”
price that covered the cost of the trade
as well as the cost of the research and conversation
time.
By the late 1990s, Web-based trading
through fi rms like E-Trade threatened
to undermine this arrangement. A customer
time life pictures/getty images
Fourth Quarter 2004 77
could talk to a broker, but then avoid paying
a hefty bundled commission by trading
online. Customers could download online
research as well.
Brokers have increasingly adopted a twopart
response. They have changed their pricing
so that they are paid a percentage of
customer assets under management rather
than a per-trade commission. And consistent
with our argument here, they have expanded
what they do to include fi nancial advice
(retirement planning, college savings planning
and similar services not easily provided
over the Web) that requires more knowledge
and insight.
tasks and skills
Computerization has altered the tasks American
workers perform. Declining portions of
the labor force are engaged in jobs that consist
primarily of routine cognitive work and routine
manual work – the types of tasks that are
easiest to program computers to do. Growing
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