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Space Access inquired whether the proposed standard appropriately reflects risk levels voluntarily accepted by the public in normal daily activity. Voluntary risk provides an appropriate comparison. The FAA defines background risk in the context of its statutory mandate to regulate and facilitate the commercial launch industry. Congress has chosen to accept the risk of launch in order to reap the benefits attendant to the activity. Recognizing that this country has decided to accept these risks, the FAA believes, as the federal launch ranges do (see "Eastern and Western Range 127-1 Range Safety Requirements", Sec. 1.4(d), 1-12), that it is appropriate to compare launch risks to other measures of voluntary risk. A recent study proves helpful for making that comparison. See Acceptable Risk Criteria for Launches from National Ranges: Rationale, Rep. No. 97/350-2.1-01, ACTA, for the Department of the Air Force, 30th and 45th Space Wings (Sept. 1997). ACTA estimated the average annual accidental fatality probability for any individual, which is defined as all accidental causes of death. ACTA estimated the fatality probability by adding the estimated annual individual fatality probability from accidents outside the home and the reported annual individual fatality probability from accidents in the home. This excludes risk of disease. ACTA estimated a total risk of 2 x 10-4. Id. at 18. The FAA’s measure of acceptable risk for casualties may be as much as four orders of magnitude lower than this accident death risk. The comparison may only be made, of course, by translating the FAA’s collective risk measure into individual risk and by employing the same time scale for both. If the comparison is made on an annual basis, and the example of an exposed population of 100,000 persons continues to be employed, then individual risk for a launch is, as mentioned earlier, 3 x 10-10. Assuming 100 launches per year, then the individual annual risk results in a figure of 3 x 10-8, which is four orders of magnitude lower than the risks, both voluntary and involuntary, of day to day activity.
Space Access also makes the point that the FAA would have to assign a maximum number of launches per launch site if the agency intends acceptable risk to remain below background risk. In the NPRM, the FAA acknowledged that its standard is based on present launch rates, and it still finds that this threshold is appropriate for the scope and frequency of launch operations planned over the next several years. Even if launch rates increase by an order of magnitude, individual annual risk will still compare favorably with other voluntary and involuntary risks. An exponential rise in launch rates may require a reassessment, although the FAA does not foresee an exponential increase in launch rates in the near term.
Space Access also suggests that other launch risk standards provide the proper measure of acceptable risk. Space Access notes that the 1988 DOT Hazard Analysis states that "acceptable risk criteria" for NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) is Ec ≤ 1 x 10-7. Space Access at 10. As noted in its NPRM the FAA recognizes that WFF does not
use an expected casualty standard of Ec ≤ 30 x 10-6. Although at the time of the publication of DOT’s Hazard
Analysis WFF may have reported Ec ≤ 1 x 10-7, since that time, NASA has stated that WFF uses an Ec of less than
or equal to 1 x 10-6. "Range Safety Manual for Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)/Wallops Flight Facility," 24 (Jun. 23, 1993); Beyma, "Flight Safety Range Safety Officer Training Manual, NASA/Wallops Flight Facility," 2 (Sept. 1993). The FAA must choose one standard. The level of safety at the Eastern and Western Ranges, represented by the collective risk standard of Ec ≤ 30 x 10-6 has resulted in no harm to the public. The vast
majority of U.S. commercial launches take place from CCAS and VAFB. The FAA therefore finds that this accepted standard is appropriate for all licensed launches.
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Commercial Space Transportation Licensing Regulations(32)
